水土保持通报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：93-103,11.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.011
基于粮食安全视角的喀什地区耕地"非粮化"影响因素及监管对策研究
Influencing Factors and Regulatory Countermeasures of"Non-grain Conservation"Cultivated Land in Kashgar Region Based on Perspective of Food Security
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The characteristics of"non-grain conservation"farmland,and the supply and demand situation of farmland and the influencing factors of"non-grain conservation"farmland in Kashgar region were determined,in order to propose regulatory countermeasures and suggestions.The study was conducted from the perspective of food security.[Methods]The spatial-temporal characteristics of"non-grain conservation"cultivated land were determined.The profit and loss of cultivated land supply and demand and the safe interval of"non-grain conservation"cultivated land in Kashgar region were determined from 1995 to 2020 based on field investigation and statistical data using the grain supply and demand balance method.An indicator system for the influencing factors of"non-grain conservation"farmland was constructed,and a binary Logistic regression model was used to analyze the degree of influence of each influencing factor on"non-grain conservation"farmland.[Results]① From 1995 to 2020,the spatial-temporal evolution trend of the"non-grain conservation"rate and"non-grain conservation"region of cultivated land in Kashgar region was almost the same,and exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 1995 to 2014,and a fluctuating downward trend after 2014.The spatial evolution characteristics showed a distribution pattern of higher in the northeast,and lower in the southwest and northwest.② During the study period,only Kashgar City was in a long-term deficit of cultivated land supply.Ta County experienced a deficit of cultivated land supply in 2010,and other counties and cities experienced a surplus of cultivated land supply.The"non-grain conversion"rate of cultivated land in Kashgar City had seriously exceeded the safe range,and the rest of the Kashgar region was within the safe range.③ The influence of family agricultural labor force,the degree of concurrent employment of farmers,the change of agricultural resource price,and the effect of grain subsidy policy on"non-grain conservation"cultivated land was significant,while the other influencing factors had no significant influence on"non-grain conservation"cultivated land.[Conclusion]The level of"non-grain conservation"farmland in the Kashgar region was high,and the supply of farmland was unbalanced.It will be necessary to improve the protection policy of regional farmland,formulate differentiated management strategies,and curb the spread of"non-grain conservation"farmland,therefore to realize the sustainable development goal of food security and farmland security.关键词
粮食安全/耕地"非粮化"/耕地供需/Logistic回归模型/影响因素/喀什地区Key words
food security/"non-grain conservation"farmland/arable land supply and demand/Logistic regression model/influencing factors/Kashgar region分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
张文政,阿也提古丽·斯迪克..基于粮食安全视角的喀什地区耕地"非粮化"影响因素及监管对策研究[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(3):93-103,11.基金项目
自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目"基于粮食安全视角的耕地'非粮化'时空演变及其驱动机制研究"(XJEDU2022P039) （XJEDU2022P039）
