水土保持通报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：180-189,10.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240528.001
基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测
Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Health in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on PSR Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The health level of ecosystems in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin was evaluated,in order to provide a theoretical reference and decision-making basis for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the river basin.[Methods]Based on panel data from 2011 to 2021,the PSR model was used to build an ecosystem health evaluation index system in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin.The entropy method,comprehensive index method,and GM-ARIMA prediction model were used to comprehensively evaluate and predict the health level of ecosystems in the river basin.[Results]① From 2011 to 2021,the comprehensive index of urban and state ecosystems showed an upward trend.In the important water supply ecological functional area of Gannan Yellow River,the health level of the Gannan ecosystem was"inferior",and the health level of the Linxia ecosystem had changed from"inferior"to"poor".In the Loess Plateau,the health level of the Lanzhou ecosystem had changed from"medium"to"good",and the health level of the Tianshui,Dingxi,and Pingliang ecosystems had changed from"inferior"to"poor".The health level of Baiyin and Qingyang ecosystems was"inferior".In the sandstorm comprehensive preventions and control area,the health level of the Wuwei ecosystem was"inferior".② The comprehensive ecological environmental index from 2022 to 2031 is predicted to increase,but the ecosystem health level will not change significantly.[Conclusion]The overall health level of ecosystems in the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is not high.Current ecological protection and environmental improvement measures have not fully solved the challenges faced by the ecological environment in the region.In the future,it will be necessary to further strengthen supervision and management to improve the health level of ecosystems in the region.关键词
黄河流域甘肃段/生态系统健康/PSR模型/评价预测Key words
Gansu section of Yellow River basin/ecosystem health/pressure-state-response modle/evaluation and prediction分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
罗鹏,谈存峰,齐婷婷..基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(3):180-189,10.基金项目
甘肃省人文社会科学项目"黄河甘肃段生态环境与区域经济协同发展研究"(22ZZ82) （22ZZ82）
甘肃省高等学校创新基金"泾河流域甘肃段乡村人居环境治理成效、影响因素与提升路径研究"(04123009) （04123009）
