水土保持通报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：263-273,283,12.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.027
赣东北丘陵地区县域耕地非农化和非粮化驱动机制及预警
Driving Mechanism and Early Warning of Non-agriculture and Non-grain Cultivated Land in Northeastern Hilly Areas of Jiangxi Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County,Shangrao City,Jiangxi Province,and their driving mechanism were determined,and the land use change pattern for early warning was simulated,in order to provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for the strict implementation of cultivated land use control measures.[Methods]Based on the land use data of Yanshan County in 2017 and 2021,the spatial econometric model was used to identify the driving mechanism of farmland non-agriculture and non-grain conversion,and the cultivated land change was predicted by the PLUS model,and the warning level was further defined according to the forecast results.[Results]① The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County was obvious.The areas with high values of the overall rate of cultivated land change and the rate change of non-grain cultivated land were clustered in the valley plains in the north of the county and in Wuyi Mountains in the south.The low-value areas were located on the east and west sides of the county.The distribution of the high-value areas of rate of change of non-agriculture cultivated land was more fragmented,and the low-value areas were relatively continuous.② Cultivated land utilization grade and per capita cultivated land area were important factors inhibiting the non-agriculture of cultivated land.Urban-rural gradient and road density were positively correlated with the rate of non-agriculture and non-grain.Per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land reserve resources had a positive effect on the rate of non-agriculture.③ The results of the multi-scenario simulation showed that the expansion of construction land led to a significant reduction in the amount of cultivated land in the natural development scenario.The contiguity of cultivated land increased in the cultivated land control scenario.There was a situation in which forested land squeezed the cultivated land resources in the ecological protection scenario.④ Administrative villages with the moderate warning level for non-agriculture cultivated land were mainly clustered in townships in the southern part of the county,and the areas with high values of the warning level for non-grain cultivated land were generally concentrated in townships in the northern part of the county.[Conclusion]In the future,we should actively promote the construction of high-standard farmland,establish a compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection,improve the degree of land intensification and conservation in townships,carry out comprehensive land improvement in the entire region,improve the system of cultivated land transfer,and implement the control measures for the use of cultivated land with a balance between"occupation and compensation"and"balance between import and export".关键词
耕地用途管制/非农化和非粮化/空间分异/驱动机制/预警Key words
cultivated land use control/non-agriculture and non-grain/spatial differentiation/driving mechanisms/early warning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张晓平,鲍辰浩,黎德华,多玲花,邹自力..赣东北丘陵地区县域耕地非农化和非粮化驱动机制及预警[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(3):263-273,283,12.基金项目
江西省社科基金"十四五"地区项目"抚州市传统村落公共空间活化研究"(22DQ44) （22DQ44）
江西省自然科学资助项目"村庄共同体的衰落与重建:基于传统农区远郊村的实证研究"(20232BAB203062) （20232BAB203062）
