基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in Guiyang City,Guizhou Province,in the historical and future time series were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for the promotion of regional sustainable development.[Methods]ArcGIS was used to assess the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use changes and carbon stocks in Guiyang City from 2000 to 2020.The coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to predict the spatial pattern of land use,and the carbon stock change under different development scenarios in 2030.[Results]① From 2000 to 2020,land use changes in Guiyang City came from the conversion of arable land and grassland into water areas and construction land.The area of arable land decreased by 190 km2.The area of grassland decreased by 188 km2.The water area increased by 43 km2.The area of construction land increased sharply by 367 km2.② The total carbon storage of Guiyang City from 2000 to 2020 was characterized by the spatial evolution of carbon storage in different development scenarios.The total carbon storage of Guiyang City during 2000-2020 initially increased and then decreased,with a total decrease of 2.197 X 106 t.The spatial distribution pattern was characterized as high in the north and low in the south,and the northern region was the main carbon sink functional area of Guiyang City.The expansion of the construction land area was the main factor decreasing carbon storage in the study area.④ Under the natural,arable land protection,and ecological protection scenarios for 2030,the area of construction land expanded by 279,193,and 175 km2,respectively,with increases of 51.48％,35.61％,and 32.29％.④ The total carbon storage under the natural,arable land protection,and ecological protection scenarios for 2030 were 1.400×10 8,1.398×10 8,and 1.410×10 8 t,respectively,and these values had decreased from the values in 2020.The carbon storage always showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south.The ecological protection scenario was more conducive to slowing down the declining trend of carbon storage in the study area.[Conclusion]In the future,Guiyang City should continue to strengthen the policy implementaion of returning farmland to forest land in order to restore the carbon storage level in terms of the ecological environment.In terms of urban development,a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy should be formulated to take into account ecological protection while developing the economy.