中国电力2024，Vol.57Issue(8)：67-74,8.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401112
天然气发电在新型电力系统中的功能定位及发展前景研判
Functional Orientation and Development Prospect of Natural Gas Power Generation in New Power System
摘要
Abstract
Natural gas power generation has the advantages of low emissions,high efficiency,and flexibility.It is an important component and effective power source for building a new power system under the dual carbon goals of reaching carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality.However,there are still problems in China's natural gas power generation development,such as the relatively low gas source guarantee,high fuel costs,and limited key core technologies.At present,disputes about the development of natural gas power generation in the dual carbon process still exist.It is urgent to have a unified understanding and clarify its development orientation and direction.This paper takes the integrated development of natural gas power generation and new energy generation into consideration in the overall planning of the power system.It uses self-developed carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality power planning software packages for optimization analysis and constructs a low-carbon transformation scenario for the power industry with zero carbon as the goal.It analyzes the future development scale and layout of natural gas power generation under the carbon neutrality goal and conducts sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty factors affecting the future scale of natural gas power generation.Based on the model calculation results,the paper establishes quantitative indicators to evaluate the functional role of gas-fired electricity in new power systems and analyzes its functional role in clean electricity supply,power balance,and peak shaving balance in the future.Natural gas power generation still needs moderate development in the future,with new layouts mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas and gradually increasing in the central and western regions.In the future,the focus must be on strengthening the coordination of natural gas production,transportation,storage,and sales,improving the pricing mechanism of natural gas and gas-fired electricity,and accelerating the development of core technologies,to give full play to the positive role of natural gas power generation in the construction of new power system.关键词
天然气发电/碳达峰/碳中和/新型电力系统/电源规划Key words
natural gas power generation/carbon emission peak/carbon neutrality/new power system/power source plan引用本文复制引用
傅观君,张富强,夏鹏,冯君淑,张晋芳..天然气发电在新型电力系统中的功能定位及发展前景研判[J].中国电力,2024,57(8):67-74,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFB2403100).This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2403100). （2022YFB2403100）
