中国工程科学2024，Vol.26Issue(4)：40-51,12.DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2024.04.001
能源强国目标下煤炭安全保供及高效降碳效力研究
Effectiveness of Secure Supply and Carbon Reduction in the Coal Sector for Strengthening the Energy Power of China
摘要
Abstract
Research on the effectiveness of coal stable supply and carbon reduction can provide robust decision-making support for the development planning of the coal sector.This study examines the potential,capacity,and resilience of coal to maintain its primary energy status,focusing on the secure supply and carbon reduction perspectives.A system dynamics model is constructed to predict the effectiveness of coal stable supply,and the carbon reduction effectiveness within the coal sector until 2060 is evaluated.The results indicate that the recoverable reserves and resource distribution of coal in China are basic guarantee for ensuring energy security.Based on the coal supply and consumption relationship in the past 20 years,it can be concluded that coal supply in China is stable and secure.In the future,the secure supply effectiveness of coal will gradually achieve a dynamic flexible balance with fluctuations.Transitioning from traditional coal-dominated energy to coal-based energy is crucial for establishing a new energy system.China's coal industry has shown significant potential for carbon emission reduction in processing and utilization,and will demonstrate strong carbon-reduction effectiveness through the development and application of technologies such as underground gasification of coal and development and utilization of oil-rich coal.By 2060,the overall carbon reduction effectiveness will reach approximately 1×109 t.关键词
能源强国/煤炭领域/安全保供/高效降碳/效力预测Key words
energy power/coal sector/stable supply/carbon emission reduction/effectiveness estimation分类
矿山工程引用本文复制引用
葛世荣,刘淑琴,刘金昌,王兵,安小雅,向玲..能源强国目标下煤炭安全保供及高效降碳效力研究[J].中国工程科学,2024,26(4):40-51,12.基金项目
中国工程院咨询项目"推动能源强国建设战略研究"(2022-PP-03),"我国煤炭行业碳中和发展科学体系及战略路径研究"(2022-XBZD-09),"我国能源安全战略研究"(2022-JB-05),"我国能源高质量发展战略及前瞻性技术体系研究"(2023-JB-08) Chinese Academy of Engineering project"Strategic Research on Promoting the Construction of Energy Power"(2022-PP-03),"Research on the Scientific System and Strategic Path of Carbon Neutral Development in China's Coal Industry"(2022-XBZD-09),"Research on China's Energy Security Strategy"(2022-JB-05),"Research on China's High Quality Development Strategy and Prospective Technology System"(2023-JB-08) （2022-PP-03）
