中国工程科学2024，Vol.26Issue(4)：121-133,13.DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2024.04.007
动态省级电力CO2排放因子对区域碳达峰路径的影响
Impacts of Dynamic Province-Level Power-Grid CO2 Emission Factor on Regional Carbon-Peaking Pathways
摘要
Abstract
The power grid CO2 emission factor is a critical parameter for accurately calculating indirect emissions from the electricity consumption side,serving as a core indicator for precisely quantifying the CO2 emission pathways at the consumption side.This study explores the temporal and spatial characteristics of the province-level power-grid CO2 emission factors from 2020 to 2035 and compares them with official-source factors.Moreover,it integrates historical direct-emission data to accurately quantify the importance of indirect emissions from the electricity consumption side.Additionally,it predicts the province-level indirect emissions and emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2035,quantifying the impacts of power grid CO2 emission factors with distinct temporal and spatial accuracies on provincial emission pathways.The results indicate that:(1)from 2020 to 2035,the power grid CO2 emission factors of all provinces are expected to exhibit sustained decreasing trends,and there are disparities between the existing publicly available power-grid CO2 emission factors and provincial levels in the study.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the indirect emissions from electricity consumption and their proportions in net electricity-importing provinces had gradually increased,with Beijing,Shanghai,and Zhejiang province having the largest proportions.(3)Under Scenarios 1(constant power-grid CO2 emission factors on the national level)and 3(constant power-grid CO2 emission factors on the provincial level),the indirect emissions from electricity consumption and total emissions of all provinces will be significantly higher than the estimated results in Scenarios 2(dynamic power-grid CO2 emission factor on the national level)and 4(dynamic power-grid CO2 emission factor on the provincial level).The estimation results of Scenarios 1 and 2 are projected to differ significantly from those of Scenarios 3 and 4.For provinces with large proportions of indirect emissions from electricity consumption,such as Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangdong,selecting power grid CO2 emission factors with different spatial accuracies is expected to have noticeable impacts on their total emissions,further leading to shifts in their peaking years.The research results can provide a reference for supporting the planning of carbon peaking pathways in various provinces and reducing the uncertainty in indirect emission forecasts.关键词
电力CO2排放因子/碳达峰/排放路径/电力消费间接排放/省级维度Key words
power grid CO2 emission factor/carbon peaking/emission pathway/indirect emissions from electricity consumption/province-level分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贾敏,郑海涛,汤铃,王金南,舒印彪,张立,张哲,宋晓晖,姜玲玲,蔡博峰,赵良,芦新波,张泽宸..动态省级电力CO2排放因子对区域碳达峰路径的影响[J].中国工程科学,2024,26(4):121-133,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3702900) （2022YFC3702900）
中国工程院咨询项目"我国碳达峰碳中和若干重大问题研究"(2022-PP-01) National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3702 900) （2022-PP-01）
Chinese Academy of Engineering project"Study of Major Issues in Achieving Carbon Peak and Neutrality in China"(2022-PP-01) （2022-PP-01）
