统计地震学在京津冀地区地震危险性评估中的应用OA北大核心CSTPCD
Application of Statistical Seismology to Seismic Risk Assessment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
以1980～2022年京津冀地区现代地震目录作为统计样本,采用基于空间分割的非完全中心化Voronoi分割法来网格化研究区域,并以泊松模型为基础建立地震危险性概率模型,开展研究区中期尺度的中小地震概率预测.结果发现,计算得到的概率相对高值区与Ms≥3.0地震的发生存在一定的关联性,可以为地震的中长期预测提供参考依据.
We use the catalog of modern earthquakes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1980 to 2022 as a statistical sample.To grid the study area,we use the incompletely centralized Voronoi seg-mentation method based on spatial segmentation.Based on the Poisson model,the probability model of earthquake risk is established,and we conduct the probability prediction of small and medium earthquakes at the medium-term scale of the study area.The results show that the calculated probabil-ity of relatively high value region has a certain correlation with the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms≥3.0,which can provide a reference for medium and long term earthquake prediction.
孙丽娜;郭蕾
河北省地震局,石家庄市槐中路262号,050021
地球科学
统计地震学中小地震概率预测地震危险性
statistical seismologysmall and medium earthquakesprobability predictionseismic risk
《大地测量与地球动力学》 2024 (009)
899-904 / 6
河北省地震科技星火计划(DZ2023120700001,DZ2023120800016). The Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of Hebei Province,No.DZ2023120700001,DZ2023120800016.
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