中国实用神经疾病杂志2024，Vol.27Issue(9)：1077-1082,6.DOI:10.12083/SYSJ.231447
基于临床数据和HR-MRI相关参数构建脑梗死发生的预测模型
Prediction model of cerebral infarction constructed based on clinical data and HR-MRI related parameters
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a prediction model for the occurrence of cerebral infarction(ACI)due to intracranial atherosclerosis(ICAS)plaque formation based on clinical data and vascular wall imaging.Methods Totally 204 patients with ICAS plaque formation in the Langfang People's Hospital from February 2018 to June 2022 were selected and divided into observation group(80 cases)and control group(124 cases)according to whether ACI occurred.The clinical data and HR-MRI images parameters of the two groups were collected and compared.LASSO-Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for ACI,and Nomogram prediction model was drawn.Results The proportion of hypertension,diabetes mellitus,D-D,UA and Hcy in observation group were higher than those in control group(P<0.05).Plaque hemorrhage,plaque load,plaque volume,remodeling index,eccentricity index,plaque enhancement rate at the narrowest layer and overall plaque enhancement rate in observation group were higher than those in control group(P<0.05).Nine factors were initially screened by LASSO,including hypertension,diabetes,D-D,Hcy,plaque load,remodeling index,eccentricity index,plaque enhancement rate at the narrowest level,and plaque enhancement rate as a whole.Logistic regression analysis showed that the above nine factors were independent risk factors for ACI caused by ICAS plaque formation(P<0.05).The Nomogram prediction model of ACI induced by ICAS plaque formation was constructed,and the C-index of the model was 0.944.ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC for predicting ACI caused by ICAS plaque formation was 0.913(0.857-0.972).According to the calibration chart analysis,the calibration degree of the model was 0.888.Conclusion The prediction model of ACI induced by ICAS plaque formation based on clinical data and HR-MRI related parameters is feasible and reliable,which can provide guidance information for clinical prevention and treatment.关键词
脑梗死/颅内动脉粥样硬化/斑块形成/临床数据/高分辨率磁共振血管壁成像/预测模型Key words
Cerebral infarction/Intracranial atherosclerosis/Plaque formation/Clinical data/High resolution magnetic resonance vascular wall imaging/Prediction model分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
吴丽鹏,郑艳龙,张杨,张曦,赵启利..基于临床数据和HR-MRI相关参数构建脑梗死发生的预测模型[J].中国实用神经疾病杂志,2024,27(9):1077-1082,6.基金项目
河北省省级科技计划项目(编号:182777176) （编号:182777176）
