湖泊科学2024，Vol.36Issue(5)：1599-1610,12.DOI:10.18307/2024.0548
基于稳定同位素贝叶斯混合模型的南四湖水量来源定量解析
Quantification of water sources in Lake Nansi based on stable isotope Bayesian mixing model
摘要
Abstract
Quantifying the composition of water sources in Lake Nansi can clarify the relationship between local water and diverted water,and protect lake water resources accurately after the operation of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Pro-ject.A Bayesian mixing model for hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes is established in this paper.The contribution and seasonal characteristics of different water sources to Lake Nansi were compared and analyzed during the diversion and non-diversion period.Results showed that:(1)Precipitation was influenced by local water vapor,and slightly effected by oceanic water vapor during the summer.(2)Different water sources to Lake Nansi,including groundwater,precipitation,river runoff and diverted water,were all significantly influenced by the operation of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.During the diversion pe-riod,the contributions from the above sources were 5.4％,8.7％,31.2％and 54.7％respectively,with the highest contribution from diverted water.During the non-diversion period,however,the contributions were 22.9％,53.0％,6.7％and 17.4％respec-tively,with the highest contribution from precipitation.(3)After the implementation of water diversion,the contribution of diver-ted water during the diversion period was absolutely dominant,which indicated that water diversion played an important role in the water volume changes of Lake Nansi,and replace natural factors as the main driving force.关键词
南四湖/水源组成/南水北调东线/氢氧稳定同位素/贝叶斯混合模型Key words
Lake Nansi/water source composition/South-to-North Water Diversion Project/δD and δ18O stable isotope/Bayesian mixing model引用本文复制引用
白莹,王宗志,谭浪,范丽丽..基于稳定同位素贝叶斯混合模型的南四湖水量来源定量解析[J].湖泊科学,2024,36(5):1599-1610,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52109027)、江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20211023)、江苏省水利科技项目(2023025)、福建省水利科技项目(MSK202206)和中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y521006,Y521008)联合资助. （52109027）
