交通运输研究2024，Vol.10Issue(3)：29-36,8.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2024.03.004
我国重型商用车分类及其存活率研究方法
Research Method for Classification and Survival Rate of Heavy Commercial Vehicles in China
摘要
Abstract
The survival curves of various subdivision models of HDCV(Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles)are acknowledged as vital foundation for carbon emission assessment of HDCV.Therefore,to obtain the survival curves of different subdivisions of HDCV in China considering different purposes and usage sce-narios,a creative research method for the subdivision and survival rate of HDCV models based on the na-tional standard of Fuel Consumption Limits for Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles(GB 30510-2018)was proposed.Firstly,the boudary categories of various subcategories of HDCV in China were defined,and their feasibility was verified.Secondly,Weibull distribution method was introduced to fit survival rate curves for each subcategory of the concerned vehicles according to the data of vehicle ownership and new registration.The research results showed that the survival rates of various subdivision models of HDVC were consistent with Regulations on Compulsory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles in China.Fur-thermore,on basis of the vehicles ownership in 2017,the vehicle ages with 50%survival rates for ordi-nary trucks,semi-trailer tractors,dump trucks,ordinary buses,and urban buses were approximately 8.5 years,7.5 years,8 years,9.5 years and 8.5 years,respectively.While,for vehicles ownership in 2021,the counterparts were approximately 9.5 years,8.5 years,8.5 years,11 years and 8.5 years,re-spectively.It means that the progress of automotive technology has significantly extended the service life of other vehicles,except for urban buses.By comparing with the existing research results,the achieved survival curves can more accurately reflect the survival patterns of HDVC with different pur-poses and usage scenarios in China.关键词
重型商用车/存活率/威布尔分布/汽车保有量/碳排放Key words
HDCV(Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles)/survival rate/Weibull distribution/vehicle ownership/carbon emissions分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
彭育辉,刘焕新,黄潇..我国重型商用车分类及其存活率研究方法[J].交通运输研究,2024,10(3):29-36,8.基金项目
能源基金会资助项目(G-2206-33976) （G-2206-33976）
