江西农业学报2024，Vol.36Issue(7)：55-61,7.DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2024.07.009
湖北省茶叶不同气象产量方法的比较分析
Comparative Analysis of Different Meteorological Yield Methods for Tea in Hubei Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on tea yield data of three main tea producing areas of Yiling,Yingshan and Xian'an in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2021,three methods of quadratic exponential smoothing,HP filtering and 3-year sliding average were used to extract the trend yields,in order to find out the most suitable method of extracting meteorological yields and study the influence of climatic conditions on the meteorological yields of tea.The results showed that the planting area,production,yield and unit yield of the three main tea producing areas of Yiling,Yingshan and Xian'an showed a polynomial trend over time,with Yingshan being the highest before 2013 and Yiling being the highest after 2015.Trend yields fitted using the three methods followed the same trend.The tea production in Yiling area showed an increasing trend over time,while that in Yingshan County and Xian'an area showed a decreasing trend.The trend production calculated using the quadratic exponential smoothing method and HP filtering method had a significant or above correlation with the actual production,and it had a good ability to capture the parts with severe fluctuations in production.The above two methods were both better than the 3-year moving average method.The meteorological yield obtained by HP filtering method could reflect the changes of meteorological conditions.This method was applicable to the separation of meteorological yield in the three main tea producing areas of Hubei Province,providing a reference for the method of meteorological yield separation.关键词
茶叶/气象产量/HP滤波法/二次指数平滑法/三年滑动平均法Key words
Tea/Meteorological yield/HP filtering method/Quadratic exponential smoothing method/3-year moving average method分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
鞠英芹,陈正洪,马德栗,黄治勇,陈笑笑,姚瑶,汪应琼,罗蒋梅,孟芳..湖北省茶叶不同气象产量方法的比较分析[J].江西农业学报,2024,36(7):55-61,7.基金项目
中国气象局气象干部培训学院科研项目(2023CMATCZDIAN14). （2023CMATCZDIAN14）
