南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2024，Vol.22Issue(4)：719-727,9.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2024.0073
基于变权重组合模型的灌溉水有效利用系数预测
Prediction of irrigation water effective utilization coefficient based on variable weight combination model
摘要
Abstract
The irrigation water effective utilization coefficient serves as a crucial indicator to assess the efficacy of agricultural irrigation,as well as a vital component in implementing a stringent water resource management system.However,until now,there has been a lack of efficient and accurate methods for predicting the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient.In light of this,a novel prediction approach was presented for the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient. Initially,a stepwise regression analysis was employed to determine the significance of each factor contributing to the coefficient,with the water-saving irrigation area being identified as the primary factor influencing the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient.Secondly,the stepwise regression model was selected considering the key factors,and the GM(1,1)model and Logistic growth model were selected considering the time series.Finally,it was constructed of a variable weight combination model with enhanced prediction accuracy,which utilized the three weight values derived from the error values of the stepwise regression method,GM(1,1)model and Logistic growth model.The prediction error revealed that the curve of the variable weight model aligns well with the measure results curve,demonstrating a prediction accuracy that was markedly superior to that of the individual models,making it suitable for predicting the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient. The variable weight combination model was utilized to predict and analyze the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient in Guangdong Province from 2023 to 2035.The prediction result indicated that the forecast value of the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient will reach 0.679 2 in Guangdong Province by 2035. The theoretical reference is provided for the planning and management system of agricultural water resources.It is of great significance to the upgrading and modernization of irrigation districts in China as well as to the reform of agricultural water prices.关键词
灌溉水有效利用系数/逐步回归法/灰色GM(1,1)模型/Logistic生长模型/变权重组合模型Key words
irrigation water effective utilization coefficient/stepwise regression method/gray GM(1,1)model/Logistic growth model/variable weight combination model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李涛,杨路华,张玮婷,王妍,高立川..基于变权重组合模型的灌溉水有效利用系数预测[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2024,22(4):719-727,9.基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划项目子课题(2023YFD900802-01) （2023YFD900802-01）
