南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2024，Vol.22Issue(4)：747-758,12.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2024.0076
基于云耦合协调模型的水资源关联系统协调性动态评价
Dynamic evaluation of water resources correlation system coordination based on cloud coupling coordination model
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,many scholars have studied the coordinated evaluation of water resources linkage system,mainly focusing on water-economic society,water-energy-food,water-vegetation-soil,water-economy-ecology and other fields.The research scale mainly involves watershed scale and regional scale,and the evaluation method mainly adopts qualitative evaluation.Generally speaking,there are different combinations of grey correlation degree,pressure-state-response model,coupling coordination model,distance coordination degree and so on.It is well known that qualitative evaluation methods have certain ambiguity in the process of constructing evaluation index system and quantitative evaluation criteria.The uncertainty cloud theory proposed by LI Deyi in China can fully describe the uncertainty of qualitative and quantitative indicators and realize the mutual transformation of qualitative and quantitative processes.It was less applied in the evaluation of coupling coordination of water resources correlation systems.Therefore,cloud theory is introduced to construct cloud coupling coordination model to analyze and evaluate the coordination of water resources correlation systems,which makes the evaluation results more generalized. The index system of water resources correlation system including 21 indexes was established.The entropy weight-analytic hierarchy process combination method was used to determine the weight of the evaluation index.The cloud uncertainty theory was introduced to construct the cloud coupling coordination model.The cloud similarity was used to quantitatively give the evaluation results of coupling coordination degree of water resources correlation system.Compared with the traditional coupling coordination model,it had better adaptability and generalization.Taking Shandong Province as an example,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of coordination between water resources correlation systems from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed. The comprehensive evaluation index of the economic and social subsystem was also growing,reaching a maximum of 0.634 in 2021;the comprehensive evaluation index of the ecological environment subsystem was only 0.237 at the beginning of 2010.The coupling coordination degree of water resources correlation system in Shandong Province has been continuously improved as a whole,from 0.608 in 2010 to 0.715 in 2021,realizing the transition from primary coordination to intermediate coordination.In space,the coupling coordination degree of each city in the province showed the distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west,and the coupling coordination degree had been continuously improved with time. The coupling and coordinated development ability of Jinan City and Qingdao City is the best,reaching a good coordination level.The coupling and coordinated development ability of Dezhou City and Binzhou City is relatively slow,maintaining at the primary coordination level.In the future,Shandong Province should strengthen the coordinated development of water resources correlation systems in the northwest plain of Shandong Province and promote the spatial balance of the whole province.关键词
云耦合协调模型/水资源关联系统/协调度/动态评价/山东省Key words
cloud coupling coordination model/water correlation system/coordination degree/dynamic evaluation/Shandong Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵立杰,仕玉治,李福林,黄继文,钱秀红,黎明扬,王锐..基于云耦合协调模型的水资源关联系统协调性动态评价[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2024,22(4):747-758,12.基金项目
山东省重点研发计划项目(2023CXGC010905) （2023CXGC010905）
山东省水利科学研究院立院科研计划项目(SDSKYZX202121-3) （SDSKYZX202121-3）
山东省流域水利管理服务中心重点水利工程研究与试验项目(XQHFHZL-KY202004) （XQHFHZL-KY202004）
