人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(8)：15-22,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.08.003
基于失效概率的雨水管网高风险管道识别与改造
Identification and rehabilitation of high-risk pipes in stormwater networks based on failure probability
摘要
Abstract
Identifying high-risk pipelines and reducing their failure probability is an important means to alleviate urban water-logging.Therefore,this paper proposed a high-risk pipeline identification method based on the correlation between drainage ca-pacity and failure probability.Firstly,the critical criterion for pipeline failure was that the fullness was equal to 1,and the failure probability of pipeline under the design rainfall scenario was calculated based on Monte Carlo sampling.Secondly,SWMM was used to evaluate the drainage capacity of the pipeline.Then,the K-means clustering algorithm and the piecewise regression anal-ysis method were used to construct the correlation between the drainage capacity and the failure probability,and the discriminant threshold of the high-risk pipeline was deduced by the correlation.Taking a drainage area in Fengtai District of Beijing City as an example,the failure probability of 3.64%was deduced as the identification threshold of high-risk pipelines under the scenar-io of three-year rainfall.Combined with the longitudinal profile of high-risk pipelines,the causes of waterlogging were ana-lyzed,and the rehabilitation plan was formulated.The simulation results showed that the proportion of high-risk pipelines in the total number of rainwater pipelines was reduced from 91.39%to 2.32%after rehabilitation.The proportion of the total length of the high-risk pipeline to the total length of the rainwater pipe network decreased from 88.74%to 1.11%.关键词
高风险管道/排水能力/管网改造/失效概率/SWMM模型/城市内涝/北京市Key words
high-risk pipeline/drainage capacity/pipeline rehabilitation/failure probability/SWMM model/Beijing City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王琦,陈俊儒,王昊..基于失效概率的雨水管网高风险管道识别与改造[J].人民长江,2024,55(8):15-22,8.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2022A1515011179) （2022A1515011179）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72373011) （72373011）
