人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(9)：37-41,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.09.006
调水调沙期黄河下游河道洪峰增值预测方法研究
Study on Flood Peak Discharge Increase Prediction Method of the Lower Yellow River Channel During the Water and Sediment Regulation Period
摘要
Abstract
Accurately predicting the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon in the Yellow River during the period of water and sediment regulation is not only an urgent need for reservoir dispatch and flood control,but also a new topic for hydraulics and river dynamics research.This paper took the value-added ratio as the dependent variable,the sediment concentration peak,the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration,the base flow before the sediment concentration rises,the particle size of suspended sediment at Xiaolangdi Station as the independent variables and the correlation analysis was conducted.As a result,the sediment concentration peak at Xiaolangdi Station and the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration are filtered out,as the prediction pa-rameters for the flood peak discharge increase.The study proposes that the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon may occur in the Lower Yellow River when the average increase rate during the peak period of the sediment concentration at Xiaolangdi Station exceeds 22.9 kg/m3·h,and the value-added interval can be predicted on the basis of the correlation between the peak sediment concentration and the value-added ratio of flood peak discharge.By tracking the real-time water and sediment conditions at Xiaolangdi Station during the water and sediment reg-ulation in 2023,prediction and forecasting of the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon was carried out,the prediction results are basi-cally consistent with the measured results.关键词
洪峰增值/特征参数/预测方法/调水调沙/黄河下游Key words
peak discharge increase/characteristic parameters/forecasting methods/water and sediment regulation/Lower Yellow River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵连军,韩沙沙,董其华..调水调沙期黄河下游河道洪峰增值预测方法研究[J].人民黄河,2024,46(9):37-41,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206200) （2023YFC3206200）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243219,U2243222,52109086) （U2243219,U2243222,52109086）
水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022022) （SKR-2022022）
河南省自然科学基金资助项目(202300410540) （202300410540）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2022-03) （HKY-JBYW-2022-03）
郑州市基础研究与应用基础研究专项(黄科发202216) （黄科发202216）
