人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(9)：60-66,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.09.009
气候变化对南水北调西线工程的影响及建议
Impact of Climate Change on the West Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and Recommendations
摘要
Abstract
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a critical component of the national water network,with the West Route construc-tion serving as a crucial measure to alleviate water resources shortages in northwestern and northern China.The water resources pattern in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route under climate change directly affects the planning,construction and operational strategies of the project.Based on historical observed hydro-climatic data and future climate model scenarios projections,impact of climate change on the water resources in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route was assessed by employing the statistical analysis and hydrological modeling method.The results indicate that a)from 1961 to 2020,climatic conditions in the water diversion and receiving areas of the West Route are characterized by a warming and humidifying trend,with a slight increase in runoff in the diversion area and a significant decrease in runoff in the receiving area.b)In the medium-term future(2035)and long-term future(2050),temperatures in both the diversion and receiving areas are projected to rise significantly,with precipitation showing a non-significant increase.Runoff in the diversion area is expec-ted to increase by 1.42%and 2.08%for the medium-term and long-term futures respectively,compared with the baseline period(1961-2000),while runoff in the receiving area is projected to decrease by 1.02%and 0.28%respectively.c)Under future climate change scenari-os,the annual runoff in the water transfer area is relatively stable and can meet the demand for water transfer,while the annual runoff in the receiving area will slightly decrease,and the demand for inter-basin water transfer will increase.In order to ensure the long-term stable opera-tion of the West Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion project,it is suggested to strengthen the uncertainty research of climate change and its impact,and formulate scientific and reasonable countermeasures to cope with the challenge of possible water shortage in the future.关键词
气候变化/RCCC-WBM模型/水资源/南水北调西线工程Key words
climate change/RCCC-WBM model/water resources/West Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王国庆,虞畅,金君良,宁忠瑞,王云,孙高霞..气候变化对南水北调西线工程的影响及建议[J].人民黄河,2024,46(9):60-66,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202301) （2022YFC3202301）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006) （52121006）
