人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(9)：74-82,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.09.011
黄河中下游地区耐旱作物扩种的节水降碳协同效应评价
Evaluation of the Synergistic Effects of Water Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Expansion of Drought-Resistant Crops in the Middle and Lower Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
This paper aimed to address the challenges of climate change and water scarcity in the sustainable development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin by promoting the cultivation of drought-tolerant crops,thereby alleviating regional agricultural water pressure and ana-lyzing their water-saving and carbon-reducing synergistic effects.The study has designed different development scenarios including trend as usual,slow growth,technology-driven and policy-supported scenarios,formulating the analysis schemes for the water-saving and carbon-re-ducing synergistic effects of expanding the cultivation of four drought-tolerant crops of wheat,maize,sorghum and potato.The agricultural wa-ter-saving potential correction model and the agricultural carbon reduction potential model were utilized to quantitatively evaluate the water-saving effects and carbon-reduction potential of expanding drought-resistant crops under different scenarios.The results show that wheat and maize have the largest planting areas,while sorghum and potato have relatively smaller areas.Under the policy-supported scenario,the ex-pansion scale of these crops will reach to 231.2 thousand hectares(wheat),173.4 thousand hectares(maize),346.8 thousand hectares(sorghum)and 404.5 thousand hectares(potato)by 2060.In the technology-driven and policy-supported scenarios,the water-saving and carbon reduction effects of crops in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly increased,the total water saving in the study area will reach to 15.35 billion cubic meters,and the average carbon reduction potential will reach to 65.93 t/km2 by 2060.There-fore,promoting drought-tolerant crops in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River can help alleviate water scarcity,ensure regional food security,and achieve multiple goals of water-saving,carbon-reduction and income-increasing.关键词
耐旱作物/情景分析/节水效应/降碳效应/黄河中下游Key words
drought-resistant crops/scenario analysis/water-saving effect/carbon reduction effect/Middle and Lower Yellow River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
邓祥征,高云霄,程伟,韩赜,李志慧..黄河中下游地区耐旱作物扩种的节水降碳协同效应评价[J].人民黄河,2024,46(9):74-82,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(72221002) （72221002）
