人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(9)：83-89,126,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.09.012
黄河中游典型支流水文连通性变化规律及洪水效应
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Hydrological Connectivity and Its Effects on Flood Probability of Typical Tributaries in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
Clarifying the relationship between hydrological connectivity and flood probability is an important basis for scientific development of flood management measures.In this paper,the hydrologic connectivity index(RIC)of the Kuye River(KYH)catchment was measured by using a modified hydrologic connectivity model based on hydrologic observations and remote sensing data.Advanced spatial analysis tools and statistical tests,including the Theil-Sen Median and Mann-Kendall methods,were employed to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of RIC.An ordered logistic regression model was then used to examine the influence of RIC on flood probability.The results indicate a signifi-cant decline in the yearly average RIC value.Significant reductions in RIC are primarily observed in specific regions.Spatially,RIC concen-trations with high-high agglomeration are in the downstream rock mountainous areas of KYH.Notably,low-low aggregation is found in the Ulan Mulun River catchment,particularly in the Kangbashi and Yijinhuoluo.The trend of long-term significance change is dominated by highly significant decrease and significant decrease.Floods in KYH are mainly concentrated in the summer,with their frequency and annual maximum instantaneous streamflow(AMS)showing a significant downward trend.The mutation point of AMS is found to be in 1998 by the Mann-Kendall test in KYH.The RIC significantly contributes to the probability of flood occurrence.Specifically,when all other variables are fixed and unchanged,for each unit increase in the RIC,the probability of a flood becoming a larger magnitude increases by 5.999 times.关键词
水文连通性/时空分布/有序逻辑回归/洪水效应/窟野河流域Key words
hydrological connectivity/temporal and spatial variation/ordinal logistic regression/flood effects/KYH catchment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
蒋晓辉,楚楚,聂桐,张一驰,邓椿..黄河中游典型支流水文连通性变化规律及洪水效应[J].人民黄河,2024,46(9):83-89,126,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779209) （51779209）
