同济大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.52Issue(8)：1238-1249,12.DOI:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.23272
长三角一体化区域建筑业碳达峰预测与减排研究
Carbon Peak Prediction and Emission Reduction in Construction Industry of Yangtze River Delta Under Regional Development
摘要
Abstract
To study the trends and reduction pathways of carbon emissions in the construction industry of the Yangtze River Delta region,this paper establishes a carbon emission model combining random forest and regression analysis.Baseline and emission reduction scenarios for the Yangtze River Delta region are analyzed.The results show that the overall construction industry in the Yangtze River Delta will reach its carbon peak by 2035.Shanghai and Zhejiang can achieve their carbon peak in the construction industry by 2030 without taking additional mitigation measures.By 2060,conventional reduction measures can reduce carbon emissions by 47.84%to 60.99%,with the most significant reduction achieved through"reducing new construction and replacing demolition with renovation,"which can reduce emissions by 13.54%to 18.65%.Integrated policies can further reduce carbon emissions by an additional 2.71%to 18.34%on top of conventional reductions.Under the ideal implementation of various mitigation measures,the construction industry in different areas of the Yangtze River Delta will need to rely on external measures(such as green social electricity)to further reduce emissions by 13.26%to 17.12%,achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.The findings from this study can provide research ideas and a basis for low-carbon development in the construction industry of other integrated regions.关键词
区域一体化政策/碳排放预测/减排路径/施工碳排放/回归分析/随机森林Key words
regional integration policy/carbon prediction/carbon reduction path/construction carbon emissions/regression analysis/random forest分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
卢昱杰,何凌云,李佩娴,宋广翰,杨晓露..长三角一体化区域建筑业碳达峰预测与减排研究[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,52(8):1238-1249,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3801700) （2022YFC3801700）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(52108090) （52108090）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52078374) （52078374）
中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2022-XZ-21) （2022-XZ-21）
上海市科委科技支撑碳达峰与碳中和专项(22dz1207800,22dz1207100) （22dz1207800,22dz1207100）
