现代妇产科进展2024，Vol.33Issue(9)：675-678,4.DOI:10.13283/j.cnki.xdfckjz.2024.09.003
基于列线图构建宫颈癌患者根治术后尿路感染预测模型
A prediction model of urinary tract infection after radical resection of cervical cancer patients was constructed based on the nomogram
摘要
Abstract
Objective:A prediction model of urinary tract infection after radical resec-tion of cervical cancer patients was constructed based on the nomogram.Methods:A total of 189 patients with cervical cancer who were treated in the Department of Gynecology,Keqiao District Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Shaoxing City from March 2020 to April 2023 were retrospectively selected as the research objects.They were divided into model samples(133 cases)and validation samples(56 cases)at a ratio of 7∶3.Both samples were divided into infected group and uninfected group according to whether urinary tract infection occurred after operation.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of urinary tract infection and to construct a risk prediction model for infection in patients with cervical cancer.The accuracy of the model was judged by ROC curve,and the fitting degree of the model was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Results:There were 28 cases(21.05%)in the infec-ted group and 105 cases(78.95%)in the uninfected group.The results of multivariate analysis showed postoperative urinary retention(OR=27.827,95%CI=1.072～722.197,P=0.045),procalcitonin(PCT)(OR=12.640,95%CI=1.745～91.558,P=0.012),tumor necrosis fac-tor-α(TNF-α)(OR=1.759,95%CI=1.247～2.482,P=0.001)and interleukin-1β(IL-1β)(OR=5.868,95%CI=1.124～30.624,P=0.036)were independent influencing factors of u-rinary tract infection in patients with cervical cancer(all P＜0.05).On this basis,a risk predic-tion model was established.Model formula:Logit(P)=-20.608-3.326×postoperative urinary retention+2.537×PCT+0.565×TNF-α+1.770×IL-1β.The area under the ROC curve was 0.990,95%CI:0.978～1.000,the sensitivity was 0.964,the specificity was 0.933,and the Youden index was 0.879.Hosemer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=4.167,P=0.842.Conclusion:The predictive model of urinary tract infection in patients with cervical cancer based on the no-mogram model has good predictive performance.Medical staff can judge the risk of urinary tract infection in patients with cervical cancer after radical resection of cervical cancer by indicators such as urinary retention,PCT,TNF-α and IL-1β,and take targeted intervention programs.关键词
列线图/宫颈癌/术后尿路感染/预测模型Key words
Nomogram/Cervical cancer/Postoperative urinary tract infection/Predic-tion model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
李盈盈,金小青,周夫群,常艳..基于列线图构建宫颈癌患者根治术后尿路感染预测模型[J].现代妇产科进展,2024,33(9):675-678,4.基金项目
绍兴市柯桥区科技计划项目(No:2021KZ61) （No:2021KZ61）
