徐州工程学院学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.39Issue(3)：87-92,6.
石化和化工行业CO2排放量预测及情景分析
A Prediction and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industries:A Case Study of Xuzhou in Northern Jiangsu Province
摘要
Abstract
Inorder to gain insight into the CO2 emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou of Jiangsu Province,the TAPIO decoupling model was employed to examine the interrelationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth within the aforementioned industries.The STIRPAT model was employed to select six variables,including the urbanization rate,carbon emission intensity,and energy intensity,to construct a CO2 emission prediction model for predicting CO2 emissions under different scenarios from 2023 to 2030.The findings indicate that between 1995 and 2022,the CO2 emissions from the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou ranged from 0.528 3 to 12.249 9 million tons.Among them,the total CO2 emissions from the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry,as well as the petroleum coal and fuel processing industry,accounted for 81.38%to 98.20%of the total emissions.The decoupling of Xuzhou's economic development from the CO2 emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industry has undergone two principal phases.The initial phase is characterized by expansive negative decoupling,as evidenced by an extensive economic development model.The subsequent phase emphasizes robust decoupling,as exemplified by a high-quality economic development model.Under the baseline scenario,the CO2 emissions from the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou in 2030 are projected to reach 6.319 6 million tons.In contrast,under the low-carbon scenario,the number is 5.078 1 million tons,while under the strengthened low-carbon scenario,it is 4.123 6 million tons.Moreover,it is emphasized that the trajectory of CO2 emissions reduction in the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou can be anchored in regional policy regulation,energy structure and chemical process optimization.关键词
徐州市/石化和化工行业/CO2排放/STIRPAT模型/情景分析Key words
Xuzhou/petrochemical and chemical industries/CO2 emissions/STIRPAT model/scenario analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
吴蒙,宋雪娟,郑长东,朱士飞,徐辉,李阳,马莉敏,秦云虎..石化和化工行业CO2排放量预测及情景分析[J].徐州工程学院学报（自然科学版）,2024,39(3):87-92,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42002193) （42002193）
2023 年度江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项(BE2023855) （BE2023855）
徐州市科技局社会发展重点项目(KC21147) （KC21147）
