医疗卫生装备2024，Vol.45Issue(8)：73-77,5.DOI:10.19745/j.1003-8868.2024157
基于ARIMA模型的医用缝线使用数据预测与配置优化方案探讨
ARIMA model-based usage data prediction and configuration optimization scheme for medical sutures
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the factors affecting the use of medical sutures in medical institutions based on the autore-gressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model so as to provide basis and optimization strategy for the rational use of medical sutures in medical institutions.Methods The monthly usage amount of medical sutures in some hospital from January 2014 to November 2023 was used as the research subject.An ARIMA model was established by R language,with the data on medical suture usage amount from January 2014 to December 2018 used as the training set;the reliability of the ARIMA model was verified with the data on medical suture usage amount from January to December 2019 as the validation set.The monthly usage amount of medical sutures from January 2021 to November 2023 was predicted with the validated ARIMA model,then the predictive value was compared with the actual one to evaluate the benefits of implementing the medical suture optimization policy in January 2021.Results The established ARIMA model passed the white noise test(P＞0.05),and the difference between the predicted and actual values for the whole year of 2019 was not statistically significant(P＞0.05);after the implementation of the medical suture optimization policy,the actual usage amount of medical sutures in some hospital decreased.The actual value from January 2021 to November 2023 was much lower than the predicted value,and the difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05).Conclusion The ARIMA model-based medical suture usage data prediction and configuration optimization scheme contributes to clarifying the law of medical suture usage in some hospital,and provides references for optimization and precision managment of medical suture configuration.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2024,45(8):73-77]关键词
医用缝线/ARIMA模型/医用耗材/耗材管理Key words
medical suture/ARIMA model/medical consumables/consumables management分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王红丹,张宁芮,杜振伟,杨利,张和华..基于ARIMA模型的医用缝线使用数据预测与配置优化方案探讨[J].医疗卫生装备,2024,45(8):73-77,5.基金项目
国家卫生健康委医院管理研究所基金资助课题(2022MEB202) （2022MEB202）
