中国地质灾害与防治学报2024，Vol.35Issue(4)：67-74,8.DOI:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212012
基于失稳概率的单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价及其工程应用
Quantitative risk assessment and its application for individual landslide disaster based on slope failure probability
摘要
Abstract
Effective risk assessment of potential landslide disasters is crucial for informed decision-making in engineering projects.In practical engineering,the risk assessment of individual landslide disasters still relies mainly on qualitative evaluation methods.The qualitative risk level is obtained through the risk matrix based on danger and loss,which poses problems of multiple and discontinuous risk standards.This makes it difficult to compare and classify risks in actual engineering,and may also lead to errors in risk assessment results,misleading risk management.To address these issues,a probability model is employed to quantitatively describe the stability of landslide disasters,considering the size of losses to the element at risk.A quantified risk index for individual landslide disasters is obtained,introducing the concept of landslide disaster risk surface and risk contour.Corresponding evaluation and calculation software are developed to form a quantified risk assessment method for landslide disasters,eliminating the multiplicity and discontinuity of risk standards brought about by traditional landslide risk matrices.The accuracy of the evaluation is improved.By conducting quantitative risk assessment on six individual landslides in Fengjie County,Chongqing,the correctness and reliability of the quantitative risk assessment method were verified,providing a new approach for landslide disaster risk assessment.关键词
滑坡灾害/定量风险评价/概率模型/工程应用Key words
landslide disaster/quantitative risk assessment method/probability model/project application分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘东升,吴越,李珂,王艳磊..基于失稳概率的单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价及其工程应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(4):67-74,8.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0228) （cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0228）
