高速列车车轮两阶段退化建模及可靠性分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Aiming at the problems that high-speed train wheels showed phased characteristics in the degradation processes,a modeling and reliability analysis method of high-speed train wheel degra-dation was proposed based on two-stage Wiener process.On the basis of the Markov chain Monte-Carlo(MCMC)method to estimate the unknown parameters of the model,the reliability function curve and reliability life of the wheel were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation method for the prob-lems that the two-stage degradation processes of the wheel were complex and the reliability analysis form was difficult to solve.Finally,the effectiveness of the model was verified by taking the measured data of a locomotive and bogie wheel in a single repair cycle as an example.The results show that due to the operating environment,the change point position of the wheel degradation processes on differ-ent sides of the bogie is different.Compared with the reliability evaluation results of the degradation model without considering the phased characteristics,the proposed model is more in line with the ac-tual field situation.According to the reliable life prediction results,affected by the operating environ-ment,the wheel degradation processes on different sides of the bogie has different changing point po-sitions.By continuously obtaining the wheel degradation data,the reliable life value of the wheels may be calculated and updated by using the model proposed herein,which provides theoretical guidance for the further optimization of the wheel repair cycle.