中国农业大学学报2024，Vol.29Issue(9)：232-243,12.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.09.20
我国省域鸡肉价格的空间特征及传导机制分析
Analysis of spatial characteristics and transmission mechanism of provincial chicken prices in China
摘要
Abstract
In order to balance the regional development in broiler industry,this study employs the exploratory spatial data analysis,generalized forecast error variance decomposition and spatial Durbin model to investigate the spatial characteristics and transmission mechanism of chicken prices using panel data from 2009 to 2021.The results show that:1)Chicken prices in China exhibit significant positive spatial correlation,and most provinces showing either a"high-high"or"low-low"agglomeration pattern.2)The inter-provincial linkage level of chicken prices is closely related to the regional distribution of chicken and pork production,and the main chicken and pork producing areas are generally located the central regions of chicken price fluctuations.3)Significant spatial spillover effects exist among different regional chicken prices.The direct and indirect effects of chicken pork prices are significantly positive,while the direct and indirect effects of poultry meat production are significantky negative.The direct effect of broiler feed prices is significantly positive.Pork production only significantly affects the neighboring regions'chicken prices but has no significant impact on chicken prices within the region.This study recommends the establishment of a unified national market for livestock and poultry products,the establishment of a coordinated mechanism for the linkage of chicken and pork prices,the implementation of differentiated control measures for different regions.optimization of the regional layout of the chicken industry to improve the development level of the chicken industry in underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions.关键词
鸡肉价格/空间特征/价格传导/探索性空间数据分析法/广义预测误差方差分解/空间杜宾模型Key words
chicken price/spatial characteristics/price transmission/exploratory spatial data analysis/generalized forecast error variance decomposition/spatial Durbin model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
谢宁,黄奕娴,李颖,刘小春,翁贞林..我国省域鸡肉价格的空间特征及传导机制分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2024,29(9):232-243,12.基金项目
江西省社会科学"十四五"基金项目(23YJ22) （23YJ22）
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL22233) （GL22233）
江西省现代农业产业技术体系产业经济岗专家项目(JXARS-09) （JXARS-09）
