2024上半年中国化肥市场形势回顾和后期展望OA

As the"food"of crops,fertilizer plays a key role in stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring national food security.It is of great significance for the scientific research and assessment of the fertilizer market situation to promote the fertilizer industry high-quality development.In the first half of 2024 international fertilizer prices continue to fluctuate;the domestic fertilizer market supply is generally sufficient,the spring ploughing fertilizer is guaranteed;domestic fertilizer price fluctuation is lower,but still at a high level;the cumulative import of fertilizer increased and the export decreased year-on-year.In the later period,fertilizer use in summer basically ended,and the demand for fertilizer in autumn and winter increased.The enterprise maintenance is resumed one by one,and the supply fundamentals of the market exceed the demand,thus autumn and winter fertilizer supply is generally guaranteed;fertilizer prices are expected to be generally stable in the late period,some fertilizer prices may rise slightly.In the later stage,we should pay attention to the high price of fertilizer raw materials,the pressure of environmental protection policy change and capacity adjustment,and the risk of international market fluctuation.Based on this,the high-quality development of chemical fertilizer industry should be promoted from the aspects of establishing and perfecting the price stabilization mechanism such as coal,promoting the implementation of environmental protection policies,encouraging the optimization and adjustment of production capacity,and strengthening the dynamic monitoring of domestic and foreign markets.