农业展望2024，Vol.20Issue(7)：12-16,5.
2024上半年中国化肥市场形势回顾和后期展望
Review of China's Fertilizer Market Situation in the First Half of 2024 and Outlook for the Later Period
摘要
Abstract
As the"food"of crops,fertilizer plays a key role in stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring national food security.It is of great significance for the scientific research and assessment of the fertilizer market situation to promote the fertilizer industry high-quality development.In the first half of 2024 international fertilizer prices continue to fluctuate;the domestic fertilizer market supply is generally sufficient,the spring ploughing fertilizer is guaranteed;domestic fertilizer price fluctuation is lower,but still at a high level;the cumulative import of fertilizer increased and the export decreased year-on-year.In the later period,fertilizer use in summer basically ended,and the demand for fertilizer in autumn and winter increased.The enterprise maintenance is resumed one by one,and the supply fundamentals of the market exceed the demand,thus autumn and winter fertilizer supply is generally guaranteed;fertilizer prices are expected to be generally stable in the late period,some fertilizer prices may rise slightly.In the later stage,we should pay attention to the high price of fertilizer raw materials,the pressure of environmental protection policy change and capacity adjustment,and the risk of international market fluctuation.Based on this,the high-quality development of chemical fertilizer industry should be promoted from the aspects of establishing and perfecting the price stabilization mechanism such as coal,promoting the implementation of environmental protection policies,encouraging the optimization and adjustment of production capacity,and strengthening the dynamic monitoring of domestic and foreign markets.关键词
化肥/市场形势/展望/保供稳价Key words
fertilizer/market situation/outlook/supply protection and price stabilization引用本文复制引用
张益,丁莉,郭金秀,邸佳颖..2024上半年中国化肥市场形势回顾和后期展望[J].农业展望,2024,20(7):12-16,5.基金项目
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2024-45) （JBYW-AII-2024-45）
海南省社科基金(HNSK[ZC]22-165) （HNSK[ZC]22-165）
