中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(7)：14-24,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240316
落实国家自主贡献对经济增长和能源对外依赖的影响
Impacts of implementing nationally determined contributions on economic growth and energy external dependence
摘要
Abstract
The newly updated nationally determined contributions(NDCs)outline a carbon reduction trajectory capable of achieving the 2℃temperature control target stipulated by the Paris Agreement,marking a milestone in global efforts to combat climate change.However,existing literature lacks research on the economic and energy impact effects of implementing the updated NDCs.In this con-text,this study utilizes the Global Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model(GDyn-E)to predict and compare the dynamic im-pacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on medium to long-term economic growth,as well as the level of energy de-pendence in major countries and regions like China.The findings show that:① China's implementation of its new NDC targets,namely the'dual carbon'goals,is outstanding both in terms of relative and absolute emission reductions,positioning it alongside developed economies such as the United States and the European Union to lead global carbon reduction efforts and make significant contributions to global climate governance.② The economic impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs would demonstrate strong regional heterogeneity.The Chinese economy would experience minimal negative impacts,with an actual GDP loss rate ranging from approximately 0.27%to 1.12%by 2050.The United States and the European Union would also display good economic resilience,but less developed regions and net fossil energy exporting countries would face more severe economic losses.③ Net fossil energy-im-porting countries could reap the synergistic benefits of carbon reduction and enhanced energy independence,but net fossil fuel-export-ing countries would see a decline in export revenues.Due to reduced fossil energy imports and increased exports of renewable electrici-ty,China's energy external dependence would continuously decrease after 2030.Simultaneously,the share of non-fossil energy would increase significantly,and the diversification of fossil energy import sources would help enhance China's overall energy security.This study points out that,in the process of implementing the'dual carbon'goals,China should timely observe and urge the fulfillment of NDCs by all countries,actively provide green aid,strengthen international cooperation on climate change,and expand energy trading partners to promote the development of clean energy trade.The study reveals the significant impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on the economic development and energy external dependence of major countries and regions like China,provid-ing policy guidance for China in coordinating carbon reduction,economic development,and energy security while deeply engaging in global climate governance.关键词
国家自主贡献/GDyn-E模型/碳减排/经济增长/能源对外依赖Key words
nationally determined contribution/GDyn-E model/emission reduction/economic growth/energy external dependence分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张庆勇,毛显强,陈星,张士宁..落实国家自主贡献对经济增长和能源对外依赖的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(7):14-24,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与社会经济协同发展"(批准号:23AZD064) （批准号:23AZD064）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"全球贸易链-产业链-价值链-环境链'四链'融合的环境与经济耦合效应及调控策略研究"(批准号:42071270). （批准号:42071270）
