中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(7)：170-183,14.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20231224
人口老龄化、数字经济与就业技能结构
Population aging,digital economy,and employment structure
摘要
Abstract
Population aging and the digital economy are two major elements affecting socio-economic development,and it is necessary to explore how these two factors interact and affect the labor market.From the perspective of the digital economy,and based on the two-stage generation overlap model,this study integrated population aging,the digital economy,and employment structure into the same framework for theoretical analysis.Based on this,this study constructed panel data from 279 cities in China from 2010 to 2019 and used the two-way fixed effect model and threshold model to test the impact of population aging on employment skill structure.The study further discussed the moderating effect of the digital economy on this impact.The findings were as follows:① Population aging in-creased employment in low-skilled industries and decreased employment in medium-and high-skilled industries,resulting in a unipolar trend biased towards low-skilled industries in the employment skill structure.② The digital economy strengthened the positive role of aging in increasing employment in medium and low-skilled industries,weakened the negative role of aging in reducing employment in high-skilled industries,and shifted the employment skill structure from single-polarization in low-skilled industries to polarization be-tween high and low-skilled industries.③ With the acceleration of the development of the digital economy,population aging would first affect the employment of low-skilled industries,then medium-skilled industries,and lastly high-skilled industries.④ The digital econo-my mainly adjusted the influence of aging on the employment skill structure through human capital upgrading and industrial upgrading.⑤ Heterogeneity analysis showed that the digital economy mitigated the impact of aging on the employment skill structure.Therefore,it is suggested that local governments should combine the development direction of the aging industry with the characteristics of consumer demand,rationally plan the development path of the digital economy,give full play to the new development momentum brought by the digital economy,promote the integrated development of the digital economy and aging,and mitigate the negative impact of the aging population on the employment structure.At the same time,policies should be formulated and improved to provide the corresponding childcare guarantee of the'three-child policy',vigorously develop universal childcare services,slow down the deepening speed of pop-ulation aging,and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.关键词
数字经济/人口老龄化/就业结构Key words
digital economy/population aging/employment structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
肖周燕,张亚飞..人口老龄化、数字经济与就业技能结构[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(7):170-183,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"人口增长趋势的经济社会影响及应对研究"(批准号:22&ZD195). （批准号:22&ZD195）
