2003至2022年陕西省神经管缺陷发生率下降速率及缺陷儿转归OA北大核心CSTPCDMEDLINE

Objective To evaluate the changes in the incidence of neural tube defects(NTDs)in Shaanxi province from 2003 to 2022,investigate the diagnosis time and outcomes of defective infants,and pre-dict the incidence of NTDs in Shaanxi province from 2023 to 2025,thereby providing a basis for improving the birth defects surveillance system.Methods Data were collected from all the perinatal infants from 28 weeks of gestation to 7 days after birth in all the hospitals with obstetrical department in Shaanxi province during 2003-2022.The changes in the incidence of NTDs from 2003 to 2022 were analyzed based on the birth defects surveil-lance system.Results A total of 1 106 483 perinatal infants in Shaanxi province from 2003 to 2022 were surveyed,among which NTDs occurred in 848 perinatal infants,with an incidence of 7.66/10 000.The incidence was the highest(48.02/10 000)in 2005 and the lowest(0.57/10 000)in 2022.The NTDs in Shaanxi province were mainly spina bifida(55.90％),which was followed by anencephaly(25.71％)and encephalocele(18.40％).The incidences of the three declined with fluctuations(P＜0.001).The results of the Joinpoint analysis showed that the incidence of NTDs decreased slowly with the annual percentage change of-4.04 from 2003 to 2014 and declined rapidly with the annual percentage change of-28.05 from 2014 to 2022.From 2003 to 2022,the aver-age proportion of prenatal diagnosis of NTDs in Shaanxi province was 72.88％.Dead fetus(61.91％)was the main birth outcome,followed by live birth(26.77％),stillbirth(8.73％),and death within seven days after birth(2.59％).The incidence of NTDs in Shaanxi province from 2023 to 2025 were predicted by the GM(1,1)model as 0.49/10 000,0.41/10 000,and 0.35/10 000,respectively.Conclusions The incidence of NTDs in Shaanxi province declined significantly during 2003-2022,especially in a rapid manner after 2014.Dead fetus was the primary outcome of perinatal infants with NTDs,followed by live birth.