面向复合极端天气的高新能源渗透率电网风险评估技术OA北大核心CSTPCD
Risk Assessment Techniques for Grids with High Penetration of New Energy Under Extreme Weather Conditions
通过研究极端天气对电网线路分支影响的量化评估机理,建立极端天气下电力线路故障数学模型,用基于AC的级联故障(cascading failure based on AC,ACCF)模型来捕捉电力系统中输电线路随机失效后的实际功率损耗,采用归一化处理的电网切负荷、节点电压、支路功率越限指标来表征极端天气下电网的多重故障风险.运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对负荷不确定性、风光出力不确定性进行模拟,并对节点电压、支路功率越限风险进行仿真与评估.算例分析表明,所提方法能够有效准确地对不同场景下电网的运行风险进行评估,支撑电网风险专业人员提供预警决策,系统化开展电网风险防控.
A mathematical model for power line faults under extreme weather conditions is developed by examining how extreme weather impacts grid line branches.The ACCF model is employed to quantify actual power loss resulting from random transmission line failures in the power system.Metrics such as normalized grid load-shedding,node voltage,and branch power overrun are used to characterize the multiple fault risks of the grid under extreme weather.Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to account for load uncertainty,wind and PV output variability,and to evaluate node voltage and branch power crossing risks.An example analysis shows that the proposed method effectively and accurately assesses operational risks under various scenarios.This approach aids grid risk professionals in making early warning decisions and implementing systematic risk prevention and control measures.
张译心;狄晨烨;赵男;蔡木良;康兵;崔明建
天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市 300072云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,昆明市 650214国网江西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,南昌市 330096南昌工程学院电气工程学院,南昌市 330099天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市 300072||南昌工程学院电气工程学院,南昌市 330099
动力与电气工程
极端天气源网荷不确定性电网风险评估蒙特卡洛模拟
extreme weathersource-net-load uncertaintygrid risk assessmentMonte Carlo simulation
《电力建设》 2024 (010)
34-46 / 13
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52207130)and the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangxi Province(No.20223BBE51013). 国家自然科学基金项目(52207130);江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBE51013)
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