电力建设2024，Vol.45Issue(10)：34-46,13.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.10.004
面向复合极端天气的高新能源渗透率电网风险评估技术
Risk Assessment Techniques for Grids with High Penetration of New Energy Under Extreme Weather Conditions
摘要
Abstract
A mathematical model for power line faults under extreme weather conditions is developed by examining how extreme weather impacts grid line branches.The ACCF model is employed to quantify actual power loss resulting from random transmission line failures in the power system.Metrics such as normalized grid load-shedding,node voltage,and branch power overrun are used to characterize the multiple fault risks of the grid under extreme weather.Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to account for load uncertainty,wind and PV output variability,and to evaluate node voltage and branch power crossing risks.An example analysis shows that the proposed method effectively and accurately assesses operational risks under various scenarios.This approach aids grid risk professionals in making early warning decisions and implementing systematic risk prevention and control measures.关键词
极端天气/源网荷不确定性/电网风险评估/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
extreme weather/source-net-load uncertainty/grid risk assessment/Monte Carlo simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张译心,狄晨烨,赵男,蔡木良,康兵,崔明建..面向复合极端天气的高新能源渗透率电网风险评估技术[J].电力建设,2024,45(10):34-46,13.基金项目
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52207130)and the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangxi Province(No.20223BBE51013). 国家自然科学基金项目(52207130) （No.52207130）
江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBE51013) （20223BBE51013）
