Long-term variation of Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSW)and potential causesOAEI
Long-term variation of Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSW)and potential causes
Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the polar vortices,and stratospheric Planetary Waves(PWs)by analyzing and comparing their trends.Interestingly,within overall increasing trends,the duration and strength of SSWs exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after the winter of 2002,respectively.To reveal possible physical mechanisms driving these trends,we analyzed the long-term trends of the winter(from December to February)polar vortices and of stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1.Notably,our results show that in all three time periods(the entire period of 41 winters,1980 to 2020,and the two subperiods—1980-2002 and 2002-2020)enhancing SSWs were always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices and strengthening polar PWs like Stationary Planetary Waves(SPWs)and 16-day waves,and vice versa.This is the first proof,based on ERA5 long-term trend data,that weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs(especially SPWs)could cause an increase in SSWs.
QingRan Li;ShaoDong Zhang;KaiMing Huang;ChunMing Huang;Yun Gong;WenTao Tang;Zheng Ma
School of Electronic Information,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,ChinaSchool of Electronic Information,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China||Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001,China||Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy,Ministry of Education,Wuhan 430072,China||State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan 430072,ChinaSchool of Electronic Information,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China||Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy,Ministry of Education,Wuhan 430072,ChinaSchool of Electronic Information Engineering,Jingchu University of Technology,Jingmen 448000,China
sudden stratospheric warmingsstationary planetary waves16-day wavespolar vortriceslong-term trendcorrelation coefficient
《地球与行星物理（英文）》 2024 (005)
742-752 / 11
We are grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on our paper.The study is supported by the National Key RandD Program of China(2022YFF0503703)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(through grant 42127805).The authors thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)for the dissemination of ERA5 data.All data used in this study are publicly available.
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