南昌工程学院学报2024，Vol.43Issue(4)：63-68,6.
基于时间与规模概率的地质灾害危险性研究
Research on geological hazard risk based on time and scale probability
摘要
Abstract
Based on a 1∶50000 geological hazard risk survey,this article conducts a risk study on geological hazards in Qingtang-Laicun,Ningdu County with two calculation methods:time probability and scale probability.The results show that 40％of landslides with an area greater than 100 m2do not slide when the daily rainfall reaches 50 mm,i.e.,60％of land-slides occure;that 36％of landslides with an area greater than 1000 m2do not slide while the daily rainfall reaches 84 mm,i.e.,64％of landslides occur;the rainfall threshold for landslides exceeding 10000 m2set at 100 mm.The probability of landslides greater than 100 m2,1000 m2,and 10000m2is 0.783,0.134,and 0.033,respectively.The research area is divid-ed into extremely high risk areas,high risk areas,medium risk areas,and low risk areas based on the susceptibility assess-ment,combined with rainfall conditions with 10-year,20-year,50-year,and 100-year return periods,or earthquake condi-tions.The research results will provide a scientific basis for the construction of new urbanization,disaster prevention,and the formulation of disaster prevention plans in the region.关键词
地质灾害/危险性研究/青塘镇—赖村镇/时间与规模/赣江上游Key words
geological hazards/hazard studies/Laicun-Qingtang/upper reaches of Ganjiang River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘前进,邓必荣,何文城..基于时间与规模概率的地质灾害危险性研究[J].南昌工程学院学报,2024,43(4):63-68,6.基金项目
中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心"大别—罗霄山区城镇灾害地质调查"(武地科合[2019]008)项目资助 （武地科合[2019]008）
