南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.48Issue(5)：197-203,7.
极端气候对美国白蛾在我国潜在适生区分布的影响预测
Effects of extreme climate on the distribution and potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea in China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to predict the potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea under extreme climate conditions in China.[Method]The occurrence data of H.cunea were obtained.Contemporary and future bioclimatic variables and extreme climate index data were processed using ArcGIS and DIVA-GIS.Environmental variables with low correlation coefficients and high contribution rates were selected.These variables were input into MaxEnt to calculate the potential habitats of H.cunea for the contemporary period,2021 to 2040,2041 to 2060,and 2061 to 2080.The spatial changes in the habitats were expressed by the relative positions of the centroids of the habitats.[Result]The maximum daily precipitation,warm spell duration index,percentage of nights when the minimum temperature is below the 10th percentile,and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were important variables affecting the distribution of H.cunea.The potential habitat of H.cunea was currently mainly distributed in eastern,northern,and northeastern China,as well as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In the future,H.cunea might spread to southwest China,reaching Sichuan and Chongqing,with scattered distributions in Guangdong and Guangxi.[Conclusion]The extreme precipitation is an important factor affecting the distribution of H.cunea.H.cunea is adapted to areas with stable climates.Predictions based on the extreme climate index indicate a risk that H.cunea will spread to southwest China in the future.关键词
美国白蛾/MaxEnt/潜在适生区/极端气候/空间分布/气候情景Key words
Hyphantria cunea/MaxEnt/potential habitat/extreme climate/spatial distribution/climate scenarios分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
薛明宇,郝德君,赵旭东,耿薏舒,胡天义,解春霞..极端气候对美国白蛾在我国潜在适生区分布的影响预测[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,48(5):197-203,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1400300) （2021YFD1400300）
上海市绿化和市容管理局科研专项(G221207) （G221207）
江苏省林业科技创新与推广项目(LYKJ[2019]04). （LYKJ[2019]04）
