山东省农业农村现代化动态演进及空间溢出效应研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD
Research on the dynamic evolution and spatial spillover effects of agricultural and rural modernization in Shandong Province
山东省作为农业大省,其农业生产总产值始终稳居全国首位,但在农业农村现代化进程中,与江浙沪等先进地区相比,山东省仍存在一定的差距.这种现状凸显了山东省推进农业农村现代化的必要性与紧迫性.本研究基于2007-2020年山东省16地市的空间面板数据,构建农业农村现代化指标体系,并进行综合测度分析,运用Dagum基尼系数分解法和核密度图揭示农业农村现代化发展的时空差异,通过莫兰指数验证农业农村现代化空间相关性,选取随机效应空间杜宾模型进行空间计量分析.研究发现:山东省农业农村现代化发展水平具有较大的空间差异和明显的空间集聚特征;农村建设和农业生产现代化水平低是制约山东省农业农村现代化的重要原因;技术因素和经济因素均能显著促进山东省农业农村现代化发展,并且这种促进作用存在明显的空间溢出效应,而农业劳动力参与因素则在一定程度上负向抑制山东省农业农村现代化进程.基于此,本研究从区域协调发展、农村现代化建设、农业科技成果转化、农业劳动力参与机制等方面提出对策建议,以期稳步推进农业农村现代化,助力打造乡村振兴齐鲁样板.
As a major agricultural province,Shandong ranks first in China in terms of total agricultural production value.However,there is still a significant gap in the level of agricultural and rural modernization compared to the Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Shanghai regions.This highlights the necessity and urgency of advancing agricultural and rural modernization in Shandong.This study,based on spatial panel data from 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2020,constructs an indicator system for agricultural and rural modernization and conducts comprehensive measurement.The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and kernel density estimation are used to reveal the spatio-temporal differences in the development of agricultural and rural modernization.The Moran's I is used to verify the spatial correlation of agricultural and rural modernization,and the random effects Spatial Durbin Model is employed for spatial econometric analysis.The research findings indicate that the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in Shandong Province exhibits substantial spatial disparities and significant spatial agglomeration.The low level of modernization in rural construction and agricultural production is a crucial factor restricting the progress of agricultural and rural modernization in Shandong.Moreover,both technological and economic factors significantly promote the development of agricultural and rural modernization in Shandong,with a clear spatial spillover effect.Conversely,the participation of the agricultural labor force negatively impacts the modernization process to a certain extent.Based on these findings,this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions from four dimensions:regional coordinated development,rural modernization construction,transformation of agricultural scientific and technological achievements,and the participation mechanism of the agricultural labor force.These recommendations aim to steadily advance agricultural and rural modernization and help create a model for rural revitalization in Shandong Province.
张务伟;王辰飞;呼静茹
山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东 泰安 271000
经济学
农业农村现代化水平测度时空差异空间溢出效应山东省
modernization of agriculture and rural areasstandard evaluationspatio-temporal differencesspatial spillover effectsShandong Province
《农业现代化研究》 2024 (004)
577-590 / 14
山东省社会科学规划研究专项(21CKRJ05).Supported by the Shandong Provincial Social Science Planning Research Special Project(21CKRJ05).
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