水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(6)：1-10,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035
基于SWAT的乌伦古河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流和总磷的影响
Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to quantitatively explore the effects of climate and land use changes on runoff and total phosphorus loading,and to provide scientific references for the future rational development and utilization of soil and water resources as well as the prevention and control of water pollution in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang.[Methods]Runoff and total phosphorus loads from the watershed under changing environments were predicted by using the SWAT distributed hydrological model and setting up six different change scenarios using scenario analysis.[Results]The coefficients of determination R2 and Nash coefficient Ens of runoff and total phosphorus in the rate period and validation period reached more than 0.75,and the established SWAT model had good applicability in the simulation of runoff and total phosphorus loading changes in the Ulungu River Basin.The combined effects of climate and land use change increase runoff volume by 0.22 m3/s and 5.14 m3/s,respectively,and the average annual total phosphorus load decreases by 894.5 t under the S4 scenario and increases by 7.41 t under the S5 scenario.As for the impact of climate change,runoff was positively correlated with precipitation changes,which was the main driver of runoff changes in the Ulungur River Basin,while total phosphorus loads were positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation changes,but the effect of precipitation on total phosphorus loads was more significant.As for the impact of land use change,both runoff and total phosphorus were negatively correlated with land use change,and land use change was one of the main influencing factors for the increase of total phosphorus load.[Conclusion]Climate and land use changes have contributed to and inhibited runoff and total phosphorus loading in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang.The impacts of climate and land use changes need to be taken into account in the formulation of policies when facing the problems of increased precipitation and water pollution in the future.关键词
SWAT模型/气候变化/土地利用变化/径流与总磷/乌伦古河流域Key words
SWAT model/climate change/land use change/runoff and total phosphorus/Ulungu River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庄秋雨,崔艳欣,张玉虎,蒲晓..基于SWAT的乌伦古河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流和总磷的影响[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):1-10,10.基金项目
国家"山水林田湖草"生态保护修复工程项目(HNS-QR-022) （HNS-QR-022）
国家自然科学基金重点国际(地区)合作研究项目(42220104004) （地区）
国家自然科学基金项目(42377337) （42377337）
