水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(6)：11-21,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.010
1958-2022年黄河头道拐水文站水沙特征分析及预测
Analysis and Prediction of Runoff and Sediment Flux Characteristics at the Toudaoguai Hydrological Station of the Yellow River from 1958 to 2022
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the evolution characteristics of runoff and sediment flux at the Toudaoguai hydrology station of the Yellow River,and to provide theoretical basis for rational planning of regional water resources.[Methods]Based on the runoff and sediment flux data from 1958 to 2022,non-parametric testing methods and the CEEMDAN method were adopted to study the trends,abrupt changes,and periodic variations in runoff and sediment flux at the Toudaoguai hydrological station.Furthermore,an Informer prediction model was constructed by using monthly runoff and sediment flux data.[Results](1)The M-K statistics for annual runoff and annual sediment flux are-3.380 and-5.067,respectively.The annual runoff and sediment flux experienced abrupt changes in 1986,1968 and 1986,with decline rates of 36％,44.38％and 61.32％,respectively.(2)After decomposing the annual runoff and sediment flux sequences using the CEEMDAN method,three IMF components and one RES component were obtained for both sequences.The average periods of the three IMF components in the runoff and sediment flux sequences were 3.69 years,7.67 years,30 years and 3.41 years,7.5 years,26 years,respectively.The decomposition of the monthly runoff and sediment flux yielded 7 IMF components,with short periods of 3.46 months and 3.61 months,long periods of 226.33 months and 184.50 months,and dominant periods of 7.25 months and 8.09 months.(3)After constructing the model,it was found that the prediction accuracy for runoff was higher than that for sediment flux.This is because that sediment flux is influenced by numerous factors and exhibits a more extensive range of variation,making it more challenging to predict than runoff.[Conclusion]There is a significant downward trend in runoff and sediment flux at the Yellow River Toudaoguai hydrological station,which is mainly attributed to the influence of precipitation,and the abrupt change points in the sequences closely related to the construction of upstream reservoirs.关键词
水沙演变/非参数检验/CEEMDAN/水沙模型/头道拐水文站Key words
runoff and sediment flux evolution/non-parametric test/CEEMDAN/runoff and sediment flux model/Toudaoguai hydrological station分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈宏涛,牟献友,罗红春,冀鸿兰,刘晓民..1958-2022年黄河头道拐水文站水沙特征分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):11-21,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金联合资助项目(U23A2012) （U23A2012）
国家自然科学基金(52379014) （52379014）
内蒙古自然科学基金重点项目(2022ZD08) （2022ZD08）
内蒙古自然科学基金青年资助项目(2023QN05026) （2023QN05026）
