水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(6)：55-66,73,13.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.017
亚热带江河源头区径流对土地利用及气候变化的响应研究
Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the runoff changes in the subtropical river headwaters under different scenarios,to provide decision-making basis for the comprehensive management and regulation of water resources in the basin and the development and utilization of water resources,and to provide scientific reference for the ecological security guarantee in the subtropical river headwaters.[Methods]Taojiang River Basin,the main source area of the Ganjiang River,was taken as the research area.SWAT model was constructed.The model was calibrated and validated by using meteorological and precipitation data from 2000 to 2019,and then the runoff response characteristics under different land use and climate change and their combination scenarios were simulated.[Results]SWAT model has good applicability to the Taojiang River Basin,and the fitting effect between simulated runoff and measured runoff is good.The runoff capacity under the construction and development scenario is the strongest,and the runoff capacity under the ecological protection scenario is the weakest.There are obvious differences in runoff capacity in different seasons.The runoff capacity of each scenario in the wet season is quite different,while the difference of surface runoff in different scenarios in the dry season is small.In the 15 climate change scenarios,the runoff is positively correlated with precipitation(p＜0.01)and negatively correlated with temperature.Compared with the change of temperature,the change of precipitation has a greater impact on the runoff flow in Taojiang River Basin,which is the main influencing factor on runoff change.The average annual runoff under L1&C5 scenario(cultivated land expansion scenario,temperature unchanged,precipitation increased by 20％)is the largest,reaching 267.15 m3/s.[Conclusion]In this study,land use has a weak impact on runoff change,and climate factors play a major role in runoff change in Taojiang River Basin.关键词
亚热带江河源头区/径流/土地利用变化/气候变化/SWAT模型/桃江流域Key words
subtropical river headwaters/runoff/land use change/climate change/SWAT model/Taojiang River Basin分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
张吉洪,姚正红,李俊杰,万炜,朱锦奇,郑博福..亚热带江河源头区径流对土地利用及气候变化的响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):55-66,73,13.基金项目
江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBG74S01 （）
20223BBG71013) （）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42301091) （42301091）
