水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(6)：149-160,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.003
基于GAMLSS模型的渭河流域非平稳气象干旱评估
Assessment of Nonstationary Meteorological Drought in the Weihe River Basin Based on GAMLSS Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to identify the non-stationary characteristics of the descending water series affected by climate change,to evaluate the meteorological drought characteristics in the Weihe River Basin,so as to provide a more effective reference for drought management and risk assessment.[Methods]Based on GAMLSS model,a non-stationary standardized precipitation index(NSPI)with large-scale climate factors as covariables was constructed.The applicability of NSPI in the Weihe River Basin was discussed by combining with historical drought events and Copula probability analysis,and comparing with the traditional standardized precipitation index(SPI).[Results]The influence of large-scale climate factors on precipitation series was seasonal.AOI,SOI and ENSO indexes had the most extensive influence on precipitation in the study area.Moreover,the fitting effect of non-stationary model with climate factors as covariable is better than that of stationary model in each month.Combining the run course theory and historical drought events,it is found that NSPI performs better in drought event recognition,and the occurrence frequency of extreme drought events identified by NSPI is higher than that by SPI.In addition,the optimal Copula function of the two-dimensional joint distribution of drought characteristic variables of SPI and NSPI is Frank and Gumbel,respectively.By comparing the joint probability and recurrence period,it is found that SPI underestimates the risk of drought occurrence.[Conclusion]In the context of climate change,NSPI considering non-stationary characteristics shows a more accurate evaluation of drought characteristics.关键词
气象干旱/非平稳/GAMLSS/气候因子/渭河流域Key words
meteorological drought/nonstationary/GAMLSS/climate factors/Weihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
甘容,顾淑倩,高勇,郭林,侯晓丽..基于GAMLSS模型的渭河流域非平稳气象干旱评估[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):149-160,12.基金项目
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目(232102320026,232102320032) （科技攻关）
河南省自然资源科研项目(豫自然资202361001) （豫自然资202361001）
