水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(6)：309-318,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.022
基于PLUS模型的黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用变化模拟及驱动力分析
Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Change in the Sandy and Coarse Region of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to analyze the pattern of land use evolution and its driving factors in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River,to explore the trend of regional land use change under different scenarios,and to provide a basis for guaranteeing regional ecological security and rational land use planning in the future.[Methods]Based on three phases of land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020,the characteristics and driving forces of land use change in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed.Combined with multi-scenario setting,the PLUS model was used to predict the regional land use spatial pattern in 2030 under three different scenarios.[Results]The general trend of land use change in the study area during 2000-2020 was that cultivated land continued to decrease,forestland and grassland increased first and then decreased,water area and unused land decreased first and then increased,and construction land continued to increase.The PLUS model had a good effect on the driving force of regional land use change from 2000 to 2020,and the expansion of construction land was mainly affected by social and economic factors such as distance from county government,GDP and distance from railway.Under the natural development scenario,the area of cultivated land,forest land and grassland has decreased,while the area of water area,construction land and unused land has increased;under the economic construction scenario,construction land has increased significantly,which has a significant effect on the encroachment of other types of land;under the ecological protection scenario,the expansion of construction land has been effectively restricted,and the area is mainly transferred to grassland.The area of forestland,grassland and water area increases significantly,and the regional ecological land area increases significantly.[Conclusion]Under different development scenarios,the changes of land use pattern in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River are significantly different.The future regional land use planning can refer to the research results and formulate policies according to the specific regional development goals,so as to ensure the ecological security and sustainable development of typical ecologically fragile areas.关键词
PLUS模型/土地利用变化/多情景模拟/多沙粗沙区Key words
PLUS model/land use change/multi-scenario simulation/sandy and coarse region分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杜洲,牛健植,樊登星,张卓佩,杨智勇..基于PLUS模型的黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用变化模拟及驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):309-318,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目"风水复合侵蚀产沙模拟与治理措施优化配置技术"(2022YFF1300804) （2022YFF1300804）
