基于景观格局的土地利用冲突测度及驱动机制研究OA北大核心CSTPCD
Measurement and Driving Mechanism of Land Use Conflict Based on Landscape Pattern
[目的]精准诊断城市圈的土地利用冲突区域,讨论自然、社会因子对冲突作用的空间异质性和尺度效应,可为国土空间协调发展提供依据.[方法]以武汉城市圈为研究区,采用景观格局指数从复杂性、脆弱性和稳定性多角度综合测度2000-2020年三期土地利用冲突强度并分析了其时空演变特征;同时,考虑坡度、NDVI、距水域距离和距道路距离等自然、社会因素,多模型对比后选用多尺度地理加权回归模型揭示了其驱动机制.[结果](1)2000-2020年武汉城市圈冲突失控区(热点)主要分布于中南部(武汉市境内)和东北部(黄冈和咸宁的山区带),时段内失控比例由70.09%降至67.13%;(2)相比于OLS和GWR模型,MGWR模型拟合精度更高,每一个自变量分配的可变带宽有效捕捉了尺度效应;(3)坡度、距水域距离是局域尺度变量,作用机制的空间差异较大;距道路距离、NDVI、年降水、年均温为区域尺度变量,回归系数的空间异质性相对较弱.[结论]2000-2020年武汉城市圈区域冲突状况有所改善;关注土地利用冲突驱动因素的空间作用效果可为城市圈用地矛盾缓解和优化管理提供实证参考.
[Objective]The aims of this study are to accurately diagnose land use conflict areas in urban areas,to discuss the spatial heterogeneity and scale effects of natural and social factors on conflict,and to provide a basis for the coordinated development of territorial space.[Methods]Wuhan metropolitan area was taken as the research area.The landscape pattern index was used to comprehensively measure the intensity of land use conflicts in the three periods from 2000 to 2020 from the perspectives of complexity,vulnerability and stability,and to analyze its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics.At the same time,considering the natural and social factors such as slope,NDVI,distance from water and distance from road,the multi-scale geographical weighted regression model was used to reveal the driving mechanism after multi-model comparison.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the out-of-control conflict zones(hot spots)in Wuhan metropolitan area were mainly distributed in the central and southern parts of the city(in Wuhan)and the northeast part(in the mountainous areas of Huanggang and Xianning),and the out-of-control proportion increased from 70.09%to 67.13%during the period.(2)Compared with OLS and GWR models,MGWR model had higher fitting accuracy,and the variable bandwidth allocated by each independent variable effectively captured the scaling effect.(3)Slope and distance from water area were local scale variables,and the spatial difference of action mechanism was large.Distance from road,NDVI,annual precipitation and average annual temperature were regional scale variables,and the spatial heterogeneity of regression coefficients was relatively weak.[Conclusion]The situation of regional conflicts in Wuhan metropolitan area had improved from 2000 to 2020.Paying attention to the spatial effects of the drivers of land use conflicts can provide empirical reference for the alleviation of land use conflicts and the optimization of management in Wuhan metropolitan area.
胡艺川;安睿;杨佳明;刘耀林
武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉 430079
经济学
土地利用冲突时空分异多尺度地理加权回归武汉城市圈
land use conflictspatiotemporal differentiationmulti-scale geographical weighted regressionWuhan metropolitan area
《水土保持研究》 2024 (006)
354-364 / 11
国家自然科学基金重点项目"自然与人文地理过程耦合的土地利用空间优化配置建模理论与方法"(42230107)
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