生态学杂志2024，Vol.43Issue(9)：2684-2693,10.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202409.001
不同情景下松花江上游碳储量动态变化及碳汇潜力
Carbon stock dynamics and carbon sink potential in the upper reaches of Songhua River under different scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems are closely related to regional land use changes.It is im-portant to predict carbon sources/sinks under different scenarios for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential.Based on land use data in the upper reaches of Songhua River during 2000-2020,we used the CA-Markov model to predict the spatial pattern of land use under the status quo development scenario,econo-mic development scenario,and ecological protection scenario,respectively.With modified carbon density data,we used the Carbon module of the InVEST model to assess carbon stock and changes in carbon sources and sinks in the upper reaches of the Songhua River for five periods during 2000 to 2050.The overall trend of carbon storage in the upper reaches of Songhua River from 2000 to 2020 was decreasing,with a total decrease of 168.4×108 kg.During the 20-year period,the decrease of forest area and the expansion of construction land and arable land were the main reasons for the decrease of carbon stocks.Under the status quo development scenario and the economic development scenario,carbon stocks will decrease greatly in 2030 and 2050.Under the ecological conservation scenario,carbon stocks will increase by 441.5×108 and 658.1×108 kg respectively compared to that in 2020,indicating that the land use pattern under this scenario has a strong carbon sequestration capacity.Our results provide a scientific basis for optimizing land use pattern and the sustainable development of the ecological services of carbon stocks in the upper reaches of Songhua River.关键词
碳储量/土地利用变化/CA-Markov模型/InVEST模型/碳汇潜力/松花江上游Key words
carbon stock/land use/cover change/CA-Markov model/InVEST model/carbon sink potential/the upper reaches of Songhua River引用本文复制引用
张锦,姜明,张新艳,张文广,黄义强,李育虹,冯明铭,孙泽宇,李蕊,邹元春..不同情景下松花江上游碳储量动态变化及碳汇潜力[J].生态学杂志,2024,43(9):2684-2693,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0409102)和吉林省自然科学基金项目(20210101105JC)资助. （2019YFC0409102）
