安全与环境工程2024，Vol.31Issue(5)：219-227,9.DOI:10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20231038
近40年鄱阳湖面积变化及其归因分析
Area change and attribution analysis of Poyang Lake in the past 40 years
摘要
Abstract
Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China,and changes in its area have a significant impact on the regional ecological environment.In this study,we extracted the water surface area of Poyang Lake on some dates from 1984 to 2021 based on Landsat remote sensing images,and then used the multiple regression model to establish the relationship between the surface area and the measured water level of the hydrological sta-tion in the lake,estimated the consecutive long-series area,and obtained daily-scale area data of Poyang Lake for the period of 1980-2021.Secondly,we analyzed the change in surface area in detail using the Mann-Kendall test and quantitatively separated the contributions of climate change and human activities to the change in the surface area of Poyang Lake based on the double cumulative curve method.The study results are as fol-lows:①During the past 40 years,the area of Poyang Lake decreased significantly,with a mutation point in 2003.The average area of the base period(1980-2002)before the mutation point is 2 585.4 km2,and the av-erage area of the change period(2003-2021)after the mutation point is 2 198.7 km2.Compared with the base period,the area of the change period decreases by 386.7 km2,which is about 15.0%.②The reduction of the surface area of Poyang Lake in different seasons is different,among which the surface area in autumn is reduced the most,which is reduced by about 22.8%,followed by the areas in winter,spring,and summer,which are reduced by about 13.6%,13.1%and 11.8%,respectively.③The contributions of climate change and human activities to the reduction of the area of Poyang Lake is 24.7%and 75.3%respectively,and human activities are the main reason for the reduction of the area of Poyang Lake.关键词
鄱阳湖/面积估算/面积变化/归因分析Key words
Poyang Lake/area estimation/area change/attribution analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
蒋涛,张旭东,江聪,黄琨..近40年鄱阳湖面积变化及其归因分析[J].安全与环境工程,2024,31(5):219-227,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51809243) （51809243）
