国际石油经济2024，Vol.32Issue(8)：58-65,72,9.
美联储降息对国际油价的历史影响与现实启示
The historical impacts and practical enlightenments of the Fed's interest rate cutting policy on international oil prices
吴宇嘉 1石洪宇 2王利宁 2任贵民3
作者信息
- 1. 对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院
- 2. 中国石油集团经济技术研究院||中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室
- 3. 中国石油西北销售公司
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Under the transmission of interest rate mechanism,exchange rate mechanism and information effect,and market expectation,the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting policy has a spillover effect on the international oil market,resulting in the fluctuation of international oil prices.The paper analyzes the relationship between the Fed's interest rate cutting policy and international crude oil prices by constructing the VAR model and impulse response.Considering that the WTI crude oil futures contract was listed in 1983,it takes the time series data of the daily price of WTI crude oil from March 30,1983 to January 23,2024 as a sample,and analyzes historical patterns by combining the six Fed interest rate cutting cycles during this period and the impact of the Fed's"slow-step"rate cuts,"sharp"rate cuts,and"precautionary"rate cuts strategies on international oil prices is different.At present,under the background of the US inflation slowdown and the potential recession risk of the US economy,the Fed may start the interest rate cutting cycle in 2024.The paper proposes that international oil prices may first fall and then rise in the short term,and will gradually return to the normal range in the long run.It is recommended to take measures to deal with the risk of oil price fluctuations and avoid exchange rate risks by relying on Shanghai crude oil futures.关键词
美联储/预防式降息/联邦基金利率/国际原油价格Key words
the Federal Reserve/precautionary interest rate cuts/the federal funds rate/international crude oil prices引用本文复制引用
吴宇嘉,石洪宇,王利宁,任贵民..美联储降息对国际油价的历史影响与现实启示[J].国际石油经济,2024,32(8):58-65,72,9.
