气象因子对河池市南方水稻黑条矮缩病发展的影响OACSTPCD

Based on the data of the proportion of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus(SRBSDV)outbreak area from 2005 to 2023 and corresponding meteorological data,the probability of disease trend within the epidemic cycle was fitted using the chi-squared probability density function.The floating probability of disease occurrence was separated.The key meteorological factors were selected for correlation analysis with the floating probability of disease occurrence.The meteorological evaluation model for disease outbreak was constructed based on significantly correlated meteorological factors.The results indicate that:(1)2010 was the outbreak period for SRBSDV in Hechi City,with 2010-2023 constituting one epidemic cycle,where the probability of disease occurrence follows a chi-squared probability density function distribution with three degrees of freedom.(2)The floating probability of disease occurrence was significantly positively correlated with the average temperature from December to February,rainfall and relative humidity from June to July,and was negatively correlated with the ordinal number of safe sowing periods.(3)The model underestimated the degree of disease outbreak during predicted outbreak periods,but correctly predicted other years.It indicated that the model had a good evaluation effect within an epidemic cycle.The meteorological disease evaluation model could qualitatively evaluate the degree of disease within an epidemic cycle,which could provide a reference basis for rice disease prevention and control work in Hechi City.