江西农业学报2024，Vol.36Issue(9)：66-73,8.DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2024.09.009
内蒙古马铃薯气候适宜度时空演变及产量动态预报研究
Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Climate Suitability and Dynamic Prediction of Potato Yield in Inner Mongolia
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily meteorological data from 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia,the future climate scenario model and the physiological and biochemical indexes of potato were used to construct the temperature,precipitation,sunshine and comprehensive climate suitability in each development stage,analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of climate suitability and its relationship with potato production,and establish a potato yield forecast model based on climate suitability index,which could realize the yield forecasting business application at ten-day scale and banner county level and provide a reference for dynamic monitoring and optimization of yield forecasting model of potato in dominant producing areas.The results showed that in the past 60 years(1961～2020),the light and heat suitability of potato growing season was better than that of precipitation,and the regions with high comprehensive climate suitability had obvious advantages in climate resources in the south of central and western China and most of the eastern regions.From the perspective of interannual variation,sunshine suitability showed a weak upward trend,while temperature,precipitation and overall suitability showed a different degree of downward trend,which had a weak negative effect on potato production.In the next 50 years(2021～2070),climate change is more likely to have a weak positive effect on potato production under the low emission scenario of RCP4.5,while it is more likely to have a negative effect under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5.From early July to early September,74%of the yield forecast models passed the 0.05 confidence test,and the average accuracy rate of forecast extrapolation was 87.4%.The effect of business trial application was good,and the trend of potato forecast was basically consistent with the actual situation.关键词
内蒙古/马铃薯/气候适宜度/产量预报/时空演变Key words
Inner Mongolia/Potato/Climate suitability/Yield prediction/Spatiotemporal evolution分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
金林雪,于水燕,宋海清,王海梅..内蒙古马铃薯气候适宜度时空演变及产量动态预报研究[J].江西农业学报,2024,36(9):66-73,8.基金项目
内蒙古科技厅科技计划项目(2022YFH0130) （2022YFH0130）
内蒙古气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202465) （nmqxkjcx202465）
中国气象局马铃薯气象服务中心共同资助项目. （）
