2022年5月江西省降水量气候趋势预测评估分析OACSTPCD

Based on datasets from ground observations and NCEP reanalysis,the climate prediction derived from the dynamic model was evaluated towards the precipitation in Jiangxi province in May of 2022,using the Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomaly index and atmospheric circulation index.Additionally,the predictive signals and their applications were also analyzed.The results showed that the model prediction of"above-normal precipitation in southern Jiangxi province"is generally accurate,and the prediction of"a concentration period of precipitation in Jiangxi province,with some areas experiencing floods"matches the reality.The precipitation processes in May are predicted well,though the drought severity in northern and central areas is underestimated to some extent.Predic-tion at the early stage combines the impacts of several predictive signals,including the La Niña event,the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plateau in the preceding winter,and the sea surface temperature changes in Indi-an Ocean,on the precipitation trend in May of 2022 for Jiangxi province.However,it underestimates the influence of La Niña on the whole area and overestimates the impact of the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plat-eau on the northern area,resulting in certain prediction deviations.