气象与环境学报2024，Vol.40Issue(4)：46-53,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.006
2017-2021年西藏高原SWC-WARMS模式降水预报产品的检验与评估
Validation and evaluation of the SWC-WARMS model products for precipitation forecasts on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Using 24-hour precipitation data from 39 observation stations on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021,the SWC-WARMS model products of precipitation forecasts were evaluated according to the operational numerical prediction evaluation metrics.The results showed that precipitation on the Xizang Plateau is mainly concentrated in the warm season(rainfall period),with light rain as the dominant form.The annual averaged accuracy rate,hit rate,and success rate of the 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast from the SWC-WARMS model are 78%,83%,and 60%,respectively,indicating considerable prediction performance,which are however characterized by relatively high false alarm rate and bias.The averaged TS score for light rain and above during the warm season is up to 0.63,while the TS for moderate rain and above is relatively low.The false alarm rate and missing alarm rate increase with rising altitude differences.During the cold season(snowfall period),the number of precipitation days is fewer,with lower TS score and higher false alarm rate than those in the warm season.However,in certain re-gions,the TS for large-threshold snowfall forecasts reaches 0.30 in the SWC-WARMS model.关键词
TS评分/空报率/漏报率Key words
TS score/False alarm rate/Missing alarm rate分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
罗布坚参,吉律,边玛拉珍,央吉次仁,次仁白玛,衡志炜..2017-2021年西藏高原SWC-WARMS模式降水预报产品的检验与评估[J].气象与环境学报,2024,40(4):46-53,8.基金项目
青藏高原第二次科考项目(2019QZKK0105)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J031)共同资助. （2019QZKK0105）
