气象与环境学报2024，Vol.40Issue(4)：138-144,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.017
基于气象指数的石家庄市夏季日用电量模型对比分析
Comparative analysis of summer daily electricity consumption model in Shijiazhuang based on meteorological indices
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily social electricity consumption and meteorological data of Shijiazhuang in summer from 2017 to 2021,we calculated temperature and humidity index,hotness index,and comfort index.We employed multiple linear regression analysis and the BP neural network algorithm to explore the correlation between daily so-cial electricity consumption and these meteorological indices in the region.We then developed models for electrici-ty consumption,i.e.a multiple linear regression model and a neural network model.The results indicated that the spatial and temporal distribution of daily electricity consumption and the number of uncomfortable days of living environments during summer are largely similar.Moreover,there is a notably positive correlation between the sum-mer daily meteorological indices and social electricity consumption.Among the indices,the correlation between daily electricity use and the number of environmentally uncomfortable days is the most significant.A model param-eterized by the comfort index for predicting daily summer electricity consumption is found to be particularly appli-cable.The study demonstrates that both the multiple linear regression analysis and the BP neural network algorithm can effectively capture the general trend of daily social electricity consumption,although the latter exhibits a higher degree of error.The accuracy of the social daily electricity consumption forecast model can be enhanced by focu-sing on the month of June,which significantly contributes to the error in the multiple linear regression analysis model.Additionally,establishing thresholds for meteorological factors and comfort indices that define the onset of peak and trough periods can further refine the model's predictive capabilities.关键词
多元线性回归/BP神经网络/舒适度指数Key words
Multiple linear regression/BP neural network/Comfort index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张翠华,段潇楠,卞韬..基于气象指数的石家庄市夏季日用电量模型对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2024,40(4):138-144,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41875085)、国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFF0304401)和河北省气象局科研开发项目(20ky15)共同资助. （41875085）
