北方农牧交错区农户干旱风险感知及其适应策略研究:以陕西省榆阳区为例OA北大核心CSTPCD

This paper used a binary Logistic regression model to analyze the impact of farmers' drought risk perception on their adaptation intention based on farmer survey data to strengthen farmers' ability to adapt to climate change and improve the resilience of agroecological systems to climate change.The results showed that farmers' perception of the severity of drought risk is ranked from high to low,as part-time farmers,multiple occupations farmers,non-farmers,and pure farmers.Their adaptive perception is ranked from high to low,as non-farmers,pure farmers,multiple occupations farmers,and part-time farmers.Part-time farmers have the strongest perception of the severity of drought risk and the lowest adaptive perception,while pure farmers have the lowest perception of the severity of drought risk and the highest adaptive perception.It can be seen that there is a complex nonlinear correlation between farmers' perception of drought risk and their intention to adapt.47.5%of the surveyed farmers were willing to actively respond to the drought risk,and the adaptation intention of part-time farmers and multiple occupations farmers with higher non-agricultural level was stronger.72.34%and 58.33%of the farmers have positive adaptation intention,36.19%of the pure farmers have positive adaptation intention,and the proportion of non-farmers is only 23.08%.There is a positive correlation between adaptation perception,adaptation motivation,natural capital,physical capital,social capital,and adaptation intention.Based on this,the paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions to improve farmers' adaptability to drought risk in northern China's agro-pastoral ecotone.